-- i mean, it is hard to say what the calculus would be, but since eagleton's mental illness is specifically asked about -- since is different from different people. host: we believe in it there. -- we will leave it there. thank you for being on the "washington journal." we want to let the viewers know what will be on the program tomorrow. we will have a rock christiansen, a cheap political reporter for the charlotte news. he will help us kick off the

coverage in charlotte as low as look at the north carolina politics. we will also be talking to dr. susan roberts. she will talk to was about the political situation in north carolina. then we will have a discussion with brian butler of the lgbt democrats. they will be here to talk to us about gay and lesbian issues in the election. thank you for joining us for this edition of the "washington journal." we will see tomorrow morning a 7:00 a.m. eastern. -- we will see you tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m. eastern.

>> what coverage of the democratic convention from north carolina. it is like here and c-span. coming up, and look at how the campaigns are using social media. we will take you live to a campaign rally with mitt romney in cincinnati. o>> it is great to have you here. this panel is all about social media. we have some of the most

important voices. joining me from the atlantic is the senior editor of the "atlantic monthly." starting year on my most immediate left, met ronnie's campaign for the presidency. and daniel, a spokesperson of google politics and election. i will turn over to my moderator. >> we need your microphone.

>> hello. >> technology is wonderful when it works. >> i wanted to talk about a steady she raised and talk about the difference between metric and engagement. i know that is a question people are talking about. obama has many more followers on twitter. people are getting information through facebook feeds. in each event has been the key word appeared >word. >> we broke this into actual metrics and vanity metrics. it has no bearing other the

people who want an opening line in an article. it is not matter how many people you have following you. the study we had, there are two different parts. one was a have to be treating -- tweeting the entire time to be engaged. we have a lot of third-party ones. speaking to engage and, if you look at the different sites, obama has 27 million people on the facebook page. mitt romney has 2.1 million people. you are looking at in the german rate of 1.5% to 25%. this is the question we post to

people every time. we define success internally. we is something that is what people understand social media. >> this is going to go to 11:00. to give some open comments. >> twitter was not around, there was no youtube, and now eight elected official, every candidate, using it directly to talk to constituents and voters. we are finding that facebook --

facebook users are 57% more likely to get a friend to go to vote. it will be a game changer in this election, other than what we have ever seen before. >> just the sheer volume, the conversation has changed. there are more tweets cents every two days and have ever been set -- sent prior to the 2008 election. i was telling the other panelists that there are more tweets about the republican convention yesterday before it even started than during the entire 2008 convention period. that explosion of conversation is now allowing us to tap into conversations that a cycle of zero would have been limited to water coolers. you talk a little bit about what -- with governor snyder before that it has also changed to a

more nostalgic, retail central politics. the best way of connecting with a voter is still the old, "hi, i am such and such and i am running for office." connecting with 300 million maybe people, it is hard to scale that 12121. so we have tv ads, radio ads, all down the list. and then we are surprised that pollsters say that members of congress are out of touch because they have never met them. now, like governor snyder, they're able to have these one- on-one connections. people like john cornyn and clare mccaskill, now having that one-on-one relationship, and that changes the tone of the conversation. >> we are obviously excited

about the way people using tools to search for information about subjects, candidates, how the candidates have the opportunity with google plus to reach out and have that two-way conversation with people. four years ago, the big difference was mobile. people can participate in a way that they could not four years ago. not on the scale we are seeing today. here in charlotte, we have our youtube, google-plus, ability to bring in voters throughout the country. even if you cannot come to tampa, you can feel part of the conversation. that is completely different from what it was four years ago. >> something the harbath mentioned about facebook friends, alliances, influencing elections. you said 2008, what is being used in 2012, now signs like a reid now sounds like an old-

fashioned term. communicating to you about a candidate something they you did not know, being persuasive in the ultimate decision. with that as a baseline assumption, do you find facebook and other social media a place to enhance that process, leverage that process? is it more important than other more traditional -- door- knocking, phone banking, means of communication? >> i do not know if it is more important, but a campaign is a holistic entity. but the scale of a facebook or twitter, it is such a big audience. from 2012 vs. 2008, there are so many more people involved in these networks. we have a unified kind of alignment of people talking about energy, pushing energy

messages with facts and feedback. some art reaching an additional 3 million people. there is a third -- some are reaching an additional 3 million people. really what we would look at within facebook is not only someone liking it but getting there friends -- but actually sharing at -- sharing it. 10,000 people are standing and saying i think you should see this, too. if they have 190 friends each, that will redefine the way the message is get out. we want to then make sure that we are sending e-mail and everything else, but we see it as transformative. >> i wonder if the others could talk about that exponential dynamic. when something has been retweeted or shared 100 times, what does that mean in terms of audience reach? >> it can go viral pretty

quickly with that sharing third we have seen photos and images doing well on this print messages, info-graphics, are giving people much more. quickly, you get a real-time response. you look at paul ryan's speech, the announcement. his page exploded. anyone talking about paul ryan that weekend was getting a tremendous amount of like comments, which helped boost to the announcement of him and helped him get good momentum coming into the convention. >> it is a powerful sentiment, not just that you shared it, which sounds nice, but you are in a sense becoming a broadcaster. you're pushing this out, feeling validated that you have this, that you can push it out to people you know, you trust, and

others. that is an amazing opportunity that has happened in this election cycle. >> i think in a broad sense what you are seeing is a democratization of access, that you don't need the same infrastructure to get a message out that you used to. we think back to the 1980 republican primary, the moment when ronald reagan took the microphone. anyone can have a microphone now and the microphone is free. if you years ago you look at captain sullenberger landing the plane on the hudson river. we look at the ferry boat going up to rescue passengers, and it was on the networks within an hour. it only had 30 followers. those followers tweeting that to their followers and then them

tweeting it to their followers, then the papers took it. you see the spread in 2010 with the tea party movement, people able to use these tools to organize without having the same top-down infrastructure that a major political party would have, for example. i think you are continuing to see this escalate as more and more people adopt these platforms. >> a good point about amplification, how that applies to metrics -- if that person has 30 followers, prior to that incident you might have thought that person does not have a lot of influence. they probably only have 30 followers. then we see what happens as a result of that implication -- of amplification, sharing it with others. everyone in this room knows how many followers they have on whatever social media. sometimes you use it as a comparison, a badge. i have a 1000, i have 4000. but what is the quality, the reach beyond that number. >> to go back to the opening question to that, sure, president obama has roughly 20

times the followers of governor romney on twitter. he tweets more often. when we start building the political index back in april where we are measuring the actions of twitter users towards candidates through their tweets -- at that time there were four times as many tweaks per day about the president as there were for governor romney. today the ratio is about 1.5 to 1. at this rate we're probably a few weeks from there be a one- to-one ratio of conversations about the president as conversations about governor romney. the conversations about the candidates is equal. that might be a starter metra to compare the campaigns. >> i want to throw two concepts out. one is durability, one is persuasiveness. what is the shelf life, do you think, something that gets

shared in any social media contest -- context? and is it correct there is sort of an assumption that durability is short, it is a limited value? concept two -- is social media a place where persuasion occurs in the dynamic process, or more often than not people are already sharing a set of values or perceptions and just continue to talk to each other and reinforce one another? >> some messages will not last as long with the ecosystem that is out there. the thing you see also -- "you did not build this," as an example. that occurred on a friday. it was broadcast on monday. from that, we have seen now across the country people coming together, whether any event, getting merchandise. it has exploded and kept for 45 days a narrative going.

that has a huge component. the challenges -- if there was a viral -- we would use it all the time. we would sit there and hit it all day long. you never know what is going to work. you have to build the infrastructure and you do everything you can. when we tweet, it is in mitt romney's voice. he has a point of view and has a role in all of it. we cannot talk 27 times a day about what he puts on twitter. we have to keep it short, so we see that as driving his message. we have other avenues for other messages, so you're trying to find a balance between that. sometimes things come to the forefront, much more bearish region much more merit based. -- much more merit based. i am sure there are many people on campaigns that find that scary, but that is the reality. it cannot control twitter, all you can do is move it left or right.

you know lager have the capacity of message control. >> how about the purse wages -- the persuasive message in all this? >> i think facebook was kind of the first party valuation in sharing. i think it remains to be seen how this all complement's a larger campaign and what is going on with your campaign day to day. it gives you a much further reach. that is the part moving forward for part of it. there is no one time it will work. sometimes it works organically. >> ok. >> particularly on the durability viewpoint -- when you are having a conversation with your friend, you are not always talking about one topic. you might bounce around a different one. continually building up that engagement, it is not always

just about quantity. you have to have good quality about compelling that people want to share. the stuff they're talking about already, the romney campaign does a great job of this. you are building up engagement, and it is building upon each other. the life of one post may be a day, but each post builds on top of it. on persuasion, we found that it is not really much of an echo chamber that everyone thinks it is. people have a diverse set of friends, and some get out the vote and they agree with you. but there may be votes on the fence. when you share that content because of the prize, it can have a persuading value as well. >> the persuasion peace first, just echoing katie's comments, a study out of texas tech analyzed campaign cycles and found several key demographic groups, particularly hispanic americans, women, and those making under $100,000 per year.

people who follow a candidate or elected official of their same general demographic group were more influenced by the candidate's tweets than by their own friends and family when they went into the voting booth in 2010 because they had that one-to-one personal relationship. in terms of that momentary nature, to order, in particular, with all of the platforms -- the 24-hour news cycle has become an 840-character one, if you will. consumers have more direct access to real-time news information than ever before. but real time is inherently momentary. that is not a bad concept. you will talk about what is in the news today, but it might not shape your decision on

election day. but if you're having the same conversation day in and day out, those trends build. we tracked president obama's approval ratings as posted by tweeted. one difference we saw was last may, following the raid that killed osama bin laden. as you would expect, there was a large discrepancy between the index number and the gallup number. when we dug into the streets, in the two months following the raid, there were more tweets about the economy than all national issues combined. if you think about this in a more common-sense way, it makes sense. a month after the raid, when a poster calls and says do you approve of the job the

president is doing, and you go with your flag members and say yes. you're talking about pocketbook issues, issues from before, your mortgage, your job. what these tools have created, and ability to tap into this public square conversation, the same with their radar did not replace but made it stronger. this gives reporters and pollsters a chance to look and say the national conversation is not match what they're telling pollsters, and what does that mean? >> i think on the persuasion side, you could make the argument about people being in an echo chamber, following their own beliefs through any type of media.

for television, radio. it is based on our political beliefs and get stuck in that. i do think the question might be, would an undecided voter in ohio in each of social media make up their minds based on the conversations they are having? maybe. that is possible. i think within persuasion there are degrees of persuasion. if you are somebody leaning toward voting for mitt romney or you are not sure about obama's issues, it will increase your desire to vote for them or change your mind a little bit. not necessarily to go to the other side, so to speak, but by a certain number of degrees. i think with regard to the permanent idea, of course we love it when people use our tools to search and find these trends, and we can see what folks are searching for. it is getting the poles of the

internet, a publicly available tools. you can go back over time. in fact, you we have gone back to 2004. you can see what people were searching for in different candidates. very powerful tools, and we encourage the media to submit as well. with google-plus, in particular, initially a hangout was not saved, not reported. it was a sort of temporary event. you brought people in, up to 10 people, a video chat, and it was gone. then we rolled out the ability to live-stream it on youtube. then it is content that you have later that can be shared somewhere else. it can be used on television. there is much more of that content than there was before. but certainly that challenge keep us afloat. that is right about the new model of the public square.

people have come to accept it as relatively temporary. >> we looked at each of the primary debates and primary elections and saw that after primary election night, that night, whoever won the primary, sought a massive spike in forward growth. i know people saw the same thing. i know the democrats saw the same thing. same with debates. people were in real time saying i want to know more about this candidate because they might not be the front-runner. >> you want to say something? >> one of the things the campaign has made a commitment to is this belief that there is almost one-third of the election that is this component of people no longer watching live television. so we have gone out to likely voters and said that one in three people in florida and ohio, their reliance on btr's netflix -- on dvr's. my mom does not think in terms of "modern family" as being on

at 8:00 at night. and with commercials, she thinks of it as 20 minutes long. whether or not it is through twitter, facebook, through google-plus or youtube. if you do not have conversations of the platforms, you will just miss people. in ohio, 2 million voters are going into potentially not being spoken -- not having spoken to -- if that is the case, would you want to go into a legend date having prosecuted many people? i still think that has not permeated all the way down to the lower reaches.

you can not reach everyone with that alone anymore. >> i wanted to follow up on what item was talking about on listening to the networks and what people have to say. this is a very noisy campaign cycle. there is a lot of controversy and all these moments that seem very negative. i am wondering if we're not listening -- if we are listening to the campaign appeared they are likely to share things that are hot-button issues. >> i would disagree with you a little bit. i think the issues are what things are shared.

and that is about the economy and issues people care about. they are sharing what they are interested in. i do think there is a broad spectrum. they are talking about the issues that matter. >> sometimes we have got back and look at, for example ron paul, quote something about the constitution. they will pull up their device in search. just to give them some context of what is happening. people perhaps are drawn sometimes to those hot-button issues. in my be just to understand them better or get better context. not necessarily because they want to pile on whichever candidate is being discussed.

they want to find out more information. sometimes it can be that simple. >> one of the things we found in the research was that the tone of the conversation on twitter is shown by the tones of the campaign. when the campaigns are having a day that they're putting out a positive message, the campaign winds up being more positive. you saw a large increase for governor romney on the day at the paul ryan announcement. esau increases for both on the day of the supreme court decision on health care. people took to twittered to support their position. what you see are these values in between when there is not a product to push one way or another and the conversation turns to talk about reaction then this communication.

that is reducing the number start to slide down. he probably see them move up during the >> some of this is human nature. does it know what to take a guess as to what the second most searched for his stance on policies. they heard aboutp90x. this is part of what goes on. it is not that different from the conversation you would have with somebody here. it is just reflected on line. >> more and more people are going to engage. it is a testament to the obama campaign in their ability. when they moved a message, it

is possible to watch it rippled across the internet. they can get talking points to get conversations started. everyone can see that. what you are seeing now from bigger events, you can only manufacturer that to a point. what you see is you move it from social media to intense media. content marketing at that point. you are looking for more information. who is talking about paul ryan? how are they talking about him? you find more and more of your friends talking to a certain way. that put somebody on the raider that you would not see at the time. building upon things. every single time we get another million people who are engaged,

those people will go a share of the message. that is what we look at every single time. we want to see the people talking about him constantly getting larger and larger. >> i have a question for dan. have this image of what used to be a campaign looking at television networks. do you see that it is more important to much a social media traffic and that wave you are talking about to get a sense of what is happening online? >> you still have your com shot that will be monitoring the television. -- shop that will be monitoring the television. you have the digital shop that will give you an overview of what is going on. there are certain people who will lead the charge on twitter and you can see things coming

much work with her. it is up to them to identify what is coming at the time. it is a human element of delegating bodies. -- dedicating bodi. look at 2008. the matter how great the mccain team was, they could not compete with the obama team online. 87 total staff versus 750 people. you have to iterate as a small campaign and then you move into a general. our digital team is 110 people. we have never ask for resources and not been given them. this is an area of growth or a cafe. we need to do whatever it is

because we are finding more value coming back and we are putting out. that changes the entire structure of the campaign. >> does the governor write his own tweets? but he has written them. he is not writing them now. it is a lot easier for me to move through the process. what he will on this yet the process. >> he is still getting e-mails from france. something will peak this interest and he will turn to us. that is the reality of social.

you do it in different ways. someone as busy as governor romney -- he has five boys. they are always part of the process. they are socially active. they bring a lot of things to our attention. >> we want to throw it out to the audience. you have a question, we will bring the microphone to you. >> the question is for zac. people tend to engage much more often with people they disagree with been people that agree with. the thinking the supreme court came down the other way that the obama campaign would have seen ?-seemed more engaged >> i lot of times on social, it

plays more one way than the other. that is when things occur. i would not expect the obama people to match us on the vp day. the debate will be that one time when you really see the head to head. that is the one thing we are building for before the debate. i do not know if that would have moved them from 1.7% engagement to 20% engagement. i feel like a broken record because everyone wants to talk about these massive list. if there is more engagement one on in the obama campaign, i would be far more nervous. i am wary about how we are apt to see what people are doing. if the supreme court ruling were different, many things would have changed. >> social media relies on free

speech and internet freedom. those under attack around the world and domestically by special interests have to think of both campaigns addressing the support for internet freedom. >> that is a good question we all reassess that issue. google takes it seriously. we have a number of different panel discussions going on. it is an issue that is personal to google. in some parts of the world, it is threatened. we have something called the transparency report. every six months or so. we have put it out there to see for everyone to analyze. it is not only countries are places that you think are

obvious that are requesting information. could be here in the u.s. or the u.k. it is not just happening in other parts of the world. whether there is something that is more reliable on a personal level -- it is an issue that is front and center. >> we believe the open exchange of information has a positive effect on the world. we had a market order that the tweets must float. we prices example was during the arab spring. after the data networks were shut down, we build what -- to build what we called speech tweets. people could call in number and dictate a tweet. we have also been publishing similar reports like to go from

media companies. i think we will continue to march in that direction. >> our intent is to make the internet a more open and connected place. it has been really powerful. we want to open it up to everyone. it has been amazing what has happened during the arab spring. you want to get people to do what they need to do. from a campaign perspective, we try not to take down anything. it stood -- it could actually come back and hurt us. it would be facebook terms that would dictate whether we took something down. the candidates would not hold different standards. that is something that we struck. if people start to think we are

thinking downtimes -- content, they will start tuning us out. it's one person comes out and says something, you have -- if one person comes out and says something, we have nine people to come out and respond. the marketplace or the community self regulates. people do say some crazy things on our page. >> we talk about the content you have been posting on facebook and twitter and google. have you been buying any ads as well? >> of course. you always want to extend the reach. that is what everyone here wants to do.

it is an area where we feel we have a strategic advantage over the obama people. it would be crazy for us to see that territory and say that is the reality. >> why you feel you have an advantage? >> being good at 2008 does not mean you are good at 2012. we feel that this team, that is what they excel at. that is how we measure our success and that is where we see we are good. it is a core component of our overall campaign strategy. we sat down we first launched and we have been executing from then until now. technology gets better and it is a core part of what we are looking to do.

we made a huge strategic decision to engage with the on demand people. we are going to take money off television and find people who are not on television and deliver messages. all about or that units are rich media at units. -- all of our ad units are rich media ad units. the spots online have a far lesser reach and they are becoming a far more powerful form of communication. >> we are thinking about consumers. the miss river -- the mitt romney ad campaign and videos on youtube, there is no pain in -- payment involved. that is important to people who are viewing them. we are acknowledging that, we

know you are watching and we want to present something that is relevant to you. you can see that level of engaging with what people are doing. they watched the entire campaign video. that is pretty powerful. we know people are watching and how many are watching. >> other questions? >> i will give it to you. >> with all of the user generated content about the campaign and the systems you have created, what are you seeing people creatively coming up with? >> things that people create that go the furthest are people -- are things that are visual. videos go in many different directions. things like instagram. all of the campaigns are generating so much data.

that is what we are seeing that is the interesting part of our campaign. someone puts a statement out there, it does not go anywhere. you have to give it some kind of concept. instagram is moving to the visual web. that is the content we are seeing get keith fergus reach, that -- get to the third this reach -- the fartherst -- farthest reach, things that are not generated by the campaign. >> we saw people at the announcements that the pictures. they were snapping pictures on the bus of kids running up and down. it is giving you a behind the scenes experience. it is the people who are your friends. never before have we had a point

in time where you would have delegates who would be putting stuff on google or facebook per giving their friends a viewpoint of things down here in tampa that and never got before. >> twitter has brought you

closer and you build a relationship around that event. you have your own roving eyes. we have seen a lot of that jury the campaign, obviously. we have seen that in other places. that is the opportunity at the conditions. it is also an opportunity for the candidates in the campaign itself. i mentioned claire mccaskill earlier. there was someone who tweeted a photo of the senator same, zero n g -- omg, i just tell my center in walmart. and she said, why did you say hello? people started tweeting about it.

it is much like that that increase engagement on the actual policy discussions. now you have changed from the weekend dates as this box in talking head on television -- from viewing the candidate as this box with a talking head to a person who actually shops where you shop. >> with regard to google plus, i am working in our google plus studio space. national journal is due in the first one at 3:00 p.m. -- doing the first one at 2:00 people were taking cameras and shooting video. it was a broadcast moment with we are hoping to host: is to

have that two-way conversation -- it was a broadcast moment. what we are hoping to do is have that two-way conversation. people are joining from different parts of the country. with regard to mobile, we just recently announced it you can join one of these live streaming events through your -- with regard to mobile, we just announced that you can join one of these live streaming events through your cell phone. you can have a lot for anyone to see and share. that is an amazing shift from where we were 40 years ago. >> the thing that is interesting about 2012 is that is the convention. the primary location of the convention will be the youtube

channel. on the year to channel, you can watch highlights. you can also have social media engagement. everybody on this panel is working to make sure we are pulling in facebook and twitter. it will replace the role of the site. you are embracing the fact that video is going to be what is driving. social media will be what moves if all were. >> the convention without walls is also about being those voices back into the hall. the convention team has done a good job of debris that

participation back into the hall. a lot people are active participating -- active participants in the event. we saw obama a couple of months ago. he was on his way to a speech. he said, when i'm done, i will take your questions for 30 minutes. someone standing in line at the supermarket sees eighth tww -- sees a tweet and there is video of the president's reading and replying and thinking about the question all in the -- there is a video of the president reading and reply and thinking about the question all in the span of 30

minutes. >> bringing some of that information to the running mate and incorporated that into the speech? >> speeches will change -- speeches will not change because they have put in place. it now goes into the campaign. it is a different entry point. i think you are seeing in more and more. if you are prepared for questions you are saying, this is what people are talking on twitter and facebook. we see this at the regional level and the national level. if you look at the national papers and the front page and

the regional papers, it is totally different. that is what we take into consideration in going into a location. that is probably more in " ready into the campaign right now. -- that is probably more incorporate already into the campaign. >> any more questions? [unintelligible] >> the first one is to filter through the hundreds of millions of entries created on twitter and create of our residents to determine what is a real person and what is not. it is difficult. we continue to work on it and refine it. 40% of the people who log into twitter every day do not tweet.

they use twitter every day as a pure consumption experience. the new york times is never going to call you and say, we know you have been a longtime subscriber, but you have not written anything for us. we are cutting you off. we look at a wide variety of signals as to what is an active account. >> the mac tricks are accessible. a few weeks ago -- the metrics are accessible. i have not seen my friends in the press write about it as much. it is a reality. i do not think any campaign minds because it is not about success.

how many thought was you have cannot define your success. if people are not engaging, that is the issue you are looking at. that is one of the questions you have to be careful care -- careful about. all of the people are not in america and they cannot votes for you if they are not. it might be someone in brazil and all these people are coming to our side. it is interesting, but there is nothing we can learn or do from that. that is widely data and analysis is so important. >> there are tweets that were sent to an account of tens of millions with no engagement. there are individual pastors around the united states to just follow their own congregation. they have more of a total reach

than oprah winfrey. colorado words are not the drive the metric for campaigns. >> i called all 68,000 of my twitter followers just to thank them. i promise we will -- we would be done at 11:00 a.m. thank you for this panel. [applause] come back tomorrow. >> on behalf of cbs and the national journal, take all of you for attending. these guys are really good. tomorrow, same time, same place. we have a terrific group of pollsters. we have a monitor -- a moderator from cbs. we have three of the best posters in the country to be here. we encourage you to join us

tonight for our viewing party. watch it, because there is not much to watch tonight. last, but not least, we have an event here at 2:00 this afternoon on the subject of healthy cities. if you are interested in that subject, please join us. thanks everybody. [applause] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> we will be taking you live to cincinnati ohio. republican presidential

candidate mitt romney is holding a campaign rally there. his trip to cincinnati is his first in his new campaign plane. it will be landing at union terminal in cincinnati. it was built in 1933 and it serves as cincinnati's museum center. we will bring that to you as soon as the event gets underway. also at 2:20 p.m., we will hear from president obama. he will be in iowa. we will that the best look back at past dnc speeches. he will be able to see john kennedy's 1960 speech and we will go to lyndon johnson in 1964, and bill clinton in 1992. >> as c-span coverage the

republican and democratic party conventions this year, this is what some viewers had to say about the candidates. >> governor romney had two things in his speech tonight, one explain why obama deserve not to be reelected and the other exclave white teeth, governor romney --, research chief elected phillip-the other -- the other explains why he, governor romney, deserves to be elected. >> it was a fairly good speech. it introduced romney to the american public. however, it did not change my mind. i would still vote for president obama. >> i wisely convention. i am extremely impressed. i am a 100% romney supporter. >> i am latino.

the present has made 12 million new jobs. compared to romney, we have to stay -- start all over. i would put obama's record against what around the has done. there is no comparison. the ticket of randy and ride together against obama and by then -- the ticket of romney and rye and together against obamas and joe biden -- there is no -- and ryan together against obama and biden -- there is no comparison. >> my whole family will be voting for mr. romney. and mr. ryan. >> join the conversation every

morning on washington journal. every morning at 7:00 a.m. on c- span. >> tomorrow, we will take a look ahead at the democratic convention in charlotte, north carolina. our first guest is a chief political reporter. he will preview the convention and talk about north carolina's politics. it will be followed by a look at north carolina as a battleground state. in 2008, obama was the first democrat to win the state since 1986. our final guest tomorrow will discuss gay and lesbian issues in the 2012 election. north carolina voters approved by 67% a prohibition on gay marriage in the state constitution. we will be talking about a delegate for the state. it is all on "washington journal tomorrow morning at 7:00

-- it is all on "washington journal" tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m.. let's take a look at some phone calls on washington journal. host: with the headline after the party is over, he is talking about what he saw at the republican convention. he says, conventions can be memorable events. they have been known to energize party faithful. they can convert never heard of into celebrities. modern-day political conventions produced a stream of infomercials' during prime time, all without paying for coverage. conventions also have their pitfalls. these affairs have, on occasion, slipped off message, creating adverse effects.

clashes between police and protesters in 1968 nearly overshadowed what was happening on the floor. this is how we are going to start. we will talk for the first 45 minutes of the program. should political conventions be changed in 2016. our first call comes from tax -- from texas on our line for republicans. caller: good morning. host: good morning. what did you think about the republican convention in tampa and what would you like see changed for 2016?

caller: we should have more exposure. it seems like the media is favoring the other side. the whole country is not getting our message. it is not being told. it is almost like some kind of blocked european country. host: in the three days of coverage that were on all of the networks, what message do you think the republicans did not get out of? caller: they did a good job on the convention. we need to expand the conventions and not stifle them in any way. we are being stifled enough by the complicitous media. they are not carrying the news. they are definitely helping out the left side. host: we will move on to

petersburg, virginia. ronald's is on our line for democrats. -- ronald is on our line for democrats. how'd you think convention should be changed for 2016. caller: i do not think taxpayer money should go to any kind of political convention. they raise hundreds of millions of dollars to do all kinds of stuff. i do not see why taxpayer money should go to this. politicians are putting themselves first. that is all i have to say. host: athletic -- let's move to indianapolis, indiana. what you think should be changed for 2016? caller: i liked the coverage from c-span where you got to see everything. in a world scripted with the

world -- the mainstream media or any media has a limited reach, they do not cover everything and we end up with snippets. we will see what comes out next week. the most interesting things are sometimes lost because the general public does not get to see because the networks do not have the capability. the other thing is, it would be nice to have a opportunity.

we need people to understand what is driving it

. the speech from chris christi ande-chris christie will fade from memory. what follows the convention is different. all of the hollywood producers and entertainment executives cannot dress up what is about to take place over the next two months. we are talking about what the political conventions need to be changed in 2016.

caller: i am a republican, but i watch the other media like rachel mad now. all they present is venom. they do not look in the mirror and look at all, with all of his promises. they are stealing all of this venom and they cannot learn. i do not think they should allow any media coverage at the convention at all. let them cover their own convention and we will cover hours. host: aside from the convention and the analysis from other members of the media, were there things you saw at the actual convention that you would want to change? the speeches, the length of the speeches?

an earlier caller said the conventions should go on for longer than three days. calm i like the fact that we did it three days and we missed one day. i did not care about clint eastwood be on there. it is not a celebrity contest. this is a fact contest. host: we want to remind all our viewers and listeners that for all -- all of our campaign coverage, you can go to our seats and conviction of what you can see all sorts of dl that we have gathered from you can take a look at speeches made by the participants and get up dates as to what is happening. in charlotte over the next week.

for our coverage, go to our c- hub. convention there is a link on our c-span web site, c-span.org. kareen on our line for democrats. you are on the air. go ahead. caller: there is a way for the parties to get their message out. i think it should be televised and he should be covered by all media outlets possible. it is away for the party to reach out. sometimes people cross party lines. i will not cross party lines, but sometimes people do cross party lines. they are energized by the message from a particular party.

host: next up is married in missouri. go ahead. calm i am kind of nervous. i have watched -- caller: i have watched the convention of week. nbc was talking during the speeches and so did cnn. i always switch back to c-span. after the paul ryan speech, someone called and said he was lying regarding the gm closure in his home time --: home town.

your host would back and did a that check and said it closed during -- fact checker was incorrect. host: to you think there should be a different tenor during the convention? ryan made his speech and people went to find the facts. caller: i did appreciate what he was saying. i do not look -- like c-span doing one side or the other side. let's people figure out what is going on. -- that people figure out what is going on. -- let people figure out what is

going on. i like the comedian part. it eased the tension. host: we have a tweet. the political parties want to continue to a large city's bottom line. so what? we also got another tweet. it should not be hard for democrats to be more truthful than republicans. from massachusetts, sandy is on our line for democrats. caller: i believe there should be no convention. what there should be money going toward politicians who are going to sell themselves on television and have the public

each time in each city send questions. stop the lying. we need to stop the line and stop them from having 50 million people around them and see what they come up with. we need the truth. we will find beaches if they do not give us the truth. i am sick of no the with-we will find the truth in they do not give us the truth -- we will find the truce if they do not give us the truth. -- truth if they do not give us the truth. they can have a certain day and a certain place to meet.

the president, the vice president of both parties. it should be all three parties. host: that was standing in massachusetts. in the new york times this morning, this article. some floridians gay convention little mind. interview was with the blogs interview that some floridians gave -- some floridians gave convention little minds. the convention was lost among other concerns. there was the impact of hurricane isaac's land fall and day to day fatigue. mr. romney spent a significant amount of his time making an appeal to women, putting his wife on a pedestal and praising his mother, who once ran for the

united states senate. mr. romney thought to -- sought to humanize himself. with voters attention floating in or out, it was not clear if his efforts had much impact. the conventions do not seem to be must seek television. ratings were down significantly from four years ago. back to the phones. lou in florida on our line for democrats. caller: i believe they spent too much money. they can send the message without spending so much money. host: where would you like to see that money spent? how could it be better spent in your opinion? caller: we do have a deficit. we have medicare and the elderly

did not get a raise. host: that is lou in florida. we want to remind our viewers and listeners what is coming up next week in the democratic national convention and show you a little from the schedule of what you will be able to see on c-span. on tuesday, september 4, the convention platform is on bail. former presidents jimmy carter and first lady michelle obama is expected to speak on tuesday, september 4. wednesday, september 5, elizabeth warren, who is running for senate in massachusetts, will be making a speech. the nominating speech will be made by former president bill clinton. a vote on the nomination and a roll call of states takes place

on september 5. on thursday, vice president biden speaks and president obama makes his acceptance speech. you can see that on the c-span network in you can watch it on c-span radio. go to our web page, c-span.org. back to the phones, brian in san antonio, texas is on the line. how should political conventions be changed in 2016? caller: not at all. i think the conventions are fine. somehow, we need to hear what they have to say. what bothers is the way that the media covers the convention. it is kind of horrifying. people are flipping around different channels and they are seeing that other channels are leading things out and

completely cutting out the heart touching stories. it is amazing to me the baez the media has been about this. -- biased the media has been about this. host:, the american public has the choice when they go into the -- the american public has the choice when they go into the voted includes. where did you do most of your convention viewing? caller: i slept around cnn and nbc. one thing that was taken away from it was the story about the lady and the family and how mitt romney helped her. i did not see that a lot of the reports. it is getting to the point now that i am watching as they are covering it and disrespecting

him. >> we take you to cincinnati, ohio where mitt romney will be holding a campaign rally. right now, on the stage is house speaker john boehner. >> a lot of speaking. my voice is about gone. i am here today because this is a serious time in our country, a very serious time. elections have consequences. four years ago when barack obama was elected, there was believe that things would change and he would work across the aisle and he would change the tone. unfortunately, he has not kept any of his promises. he is the one who said with the stimulus bill, unemployment would not exceed a%. 42 months with unemployment

above a%. i -- above 8%. it is time for america to stand up and reclaim our country. [applause] mitt romney is one of the most sincere, honest, decent human beings to walk on the face of the earth. he has a record of creating jobs from one coast to the other. he has a record of balancing budgets and fixing problems in his own state of massachusetts. he is the person who will keep his promises to the american people. he is the person who will fix our economy. he is the guy who will send barack obama packing his bags back to chicago. [applause]

ladies and gentlemen, mitt romney. [applause] ["i was born free" playing] ♪ ♪ >> thank you.

thank you so very much. what a welcome, cincinnati. thank you so much. [applause] i was asked why it was we made cincinnati our first stop after becoming the nominee, our first political stop. i think you gave them the answer this morning. thank you. i brought with me a special person who lit up the convention and is going to light up america, my sweetheart, anne romney. [applause] >> wow. that is an unbelievable recession. we are so grateful for all of you coming out. i know why you are doing it. it is not just for us. you are doing it for the country. [applause]

you all have figured it out. you know this is an important election. we have been across this country and we have seen so many families and individuals that are hurting, that are looking for hope and looking for help. guess what? help is on the way. [cheers and applause] i had a chance to talk a little bit about this guy that i love at the convention. i wanted to talk from my heart. i hope you felt that it was so much from my heart. [cheers and applause] i believe in america and i believe in this man. i know he can get it right for us, so thank you all very much.

[cheers and applause] >> getting ready for my convention speech, i read some speeches from some other people who spoke at conventions. i actually also read the inaugural speeches from some of our great presidents and heroes from my life. one of the speeches i read was the convention speech of barack obama. he was not one of the ones i wanted to draw from, but i could not resist some of the things he said. he made a lot of promises. and i notice he did not keep a lot of promises. one of the promises he made was that he was going to create a lot of jobs. today, 23 million people are out of work or have stopped looking for work. if you have a coach in your record is 0, it is time to get a new coach.

[cheers and applause] it is time for america to see a winning season again and we are going to bring it to them. now he famously said that he was going to slow the rise of the oceans. and he was going to heal the planet. our promise to you is this, we are going to help the american people and healthy families of america. [cheers and applause] this is a great state. you have a great governor, by the way. john kasich has done a terrific job. and he is showing the president, if the president would only look, how it is you can bring more jobs back to a

state. he has made ohio more business- friendly. he has held down taxes. he has balanced budgets. paul ryan and i have a plan that is going to get america working again. [cheers and applause] it will create 460,000 jobs right here in ohio. five things we will do. five things that will get this economy going again. by the way, i need josh mandel in the senate to make that happen. of course, rob portman will be there. those five things, number 1, get america energy independence. he is our oil, our coal, our gas, how our renewables.

number 2, late trade work for us. we will open markets and we will -- make markets work for us. we will crackdown on cheaters. number 3, we will make sure our workers have the skills they need to succeed and our kids have the skills they need in the 21st century. a lot of schools are not doing the job they need to do. i want to make sure we put our key its first and the teachers first and the teachers' union behind -- our kids first and our teachers first and the teacher'' union behind. number 4, you are not going to get entrepreneurs and businesses to invest in ohio and invest in

other states in america and put their life savings to work here unless they know we are not headed to be placed greece or spain or italy or those places that have had such trauma overseas. to make sure that is not the case, we will finally do something republicans have spoken of for a long time. we did not do it. i will cut the deficit and get us on track for a balanced budget. [applause] number five, i want to champion small business. i want to make it easier to grow and build businesses because that is where most of our jobs come from. [applause] instead of doing what the president says he wants to do,

which is raising taxes on our best small businesses, i want to bring them down. i want regulators to understand their job is to encourage small business. i want to take the big cloud off of small business keeping them from hiring people. i want to get rid of obamacare and replace it with something to hold down the cost of health care. [applause] mitt! [cheers and applause]

we recognize with a great responsibility you have given us, how much you expect from us to get back the white house and get america back on track. we have seen a lot of disappointment, a lot of families having hard times. i saw a report this morning that even as some jobs have been created, they note the jobs we lost were middle income jobs. the jobs we're getting back our low-wage jobs. people in this country are having hard times. the average income in america, the median income has dropped by $4,000 a family, even as the price of gasoline and food are up. these are tough times for the american people. added to that, and the

divisiveness and bitterness we have seen from the president's campaign. america is a story of the many becoming one and accomplishing extraordinary things because of our unity. i thought today of the great heroism, patriotism, courage of one of ohio's best, neil armstrong. what a champion. [applause] the courage and character of that one man, combined with the unity of so many that came together to help achieve a great accomplishment, it is a model for our nation. i will do everything in my power to bring us together because united, american build the strongest economy in the history

of the earth. united, we put neil armstrong on the moon. united, we faced down unspeakable darkness. united, our men and women in uniform continue to defend freedom today. i love those people that serve our great nation. [cheers and applause] this is a time for us to come together as a nation. we do not have to have the kind of divisiveness, bitterness, and recrimination we have seen over the last four years. i will bring us together and put in place the five steps are described. america will come roaring back. a better future is ahead. it is waiting for us. our families deserve it. our children demand it. the piece of the planet depends upon it. i love america. we're taking this country back. we will get america strong again. we're doing it for your

children, the future. god bless the united states of america. god bless the great people of ohio. thank you so much. thank you. [cheers and applause] ♪ free ♪was born [applause] ♪

free ♪ born

setiting for the sun to when it is done, believe that i will yell it from the mountain high i was born free, i was born free i was born free i will celebrate god's grace on

tme i was born free, i was born free ♪ >> watching as mitt romney greets the crowd in cincinnati, ohio, at union terminal, an art deco landmark for cincinnati. we are taking your calls. you can see the numbers on your screen. democrats, republicans, and independent voters. we will be showing an appearance by president obama later this afternoon. for now, we want to see what you thought of mitt romney's appearance in cincinnati. francis is on the line from california, a republican.

caller: hello? host: what did you think of what you saw? caller: he is probably one of the more honest and has more integrity than any other man i have seen in a long time. you can see it. how much he loves his wife, his family, his country. i am a little worried about this voter i.d. fraud they are talking about. i am worried about the foreclosures. my daughter is going to be one of them. people do not realize their vote is going to really count this time. instead of going forward on the deficit, i am worried about the deficit up to $16 trillion. if we keep on with all of these programs -- my daughter and her husband have tried to make a living for 37 years. they cannot even make a living

on account of what is going on now. host: what do you think mitt romney will do? caller: i think he will do what he said he will do. he will work with both parts of the house. he and paul ryan will try to get the deficit down. they will probably try to do something to be sure our veterans are taken care of. social security should have never been bothered. social security are the veterans. the only one that should have been looked into a are the college stuff, the medical, the medicare. they are not going to get it anyway. this is what the kids do not understand. they live in the now. they do not want to look down the road that they might need.

put the right person in office that can handle it. it does not matter one way or the other. you take this man on right now, let him do what he says he can do. see how far he gets. we do not have anything to lose now. host: we are watching mitt romney in cincinnati, ohio, the republican presidential candidate holding a campaign rally here today. the next call is from north carolina. the democrats are going to be in your state soon. caller: i would like to see the size of the crowds. i am undecided right now. all i am saying is i know who the candidate is, but i would like to see what kind of support is behind him and where they are going. host: what does the size of the crowd tell you? caller: i want to see the

support that particular candidate is getting across the nation. i am leaning right now -- i have no idea. i would like to join the crowd whoever is voting for him. host: will you be attending the democratic convention or watching from home? caller: i will be watching from home. i do not want to just see the crowds in charlotte. i want to see them across the nation. host: all right. andrea is in iowa. what did you think of what you heard from mitt romney? caller: i keep hearing the same thing, how terrible the federal government is, how taxes are the bane of humanity. yet he praises the arms from got to the moon with federal tax dollars. we do need a government, we need a wise government. -- yet he praises neil armstrong who got to the moon with federal tax dollars.

they blame it on the person they're beating up on, our president. it is illogical. they say in government taxes are bad credit the things our tax dollars do. that is my point. host: andrea, you are in iowa. we will be seeing the president later on today from iowa at 2:20. we are in ohio right now, cincinnati, with mitt romney. he is still grieving the crowds. he spoke for a short time. we will be hearing from the president later on this afternoon at 2:20 eastern time. let's see what joe has to say. he is in georgia on the republicans line. caller: i think it is going to be elected. i think he will be the greatest president in history. i am so fired up by cannot even sleep at night. we're having a barbecue. i think he will have a huge

landslide win. i think the stock market will hit all-time highs. the economy will break. -- economy will be great. i am so proud of him cannot even sleep at night. host: what do you see in mitt romney? caller: i met him five years ago. i know him well. he told me he would govern just like ronald reagan. he is a great businessman. people have told me if he is elected, the stock market will break the all-time high. i think the american people need to know if they vote for mitt romney, we will have the greatest economy and stock market in history. he is the greatest. we want to get him down here to georgia. we really love mitt romney. host: are you still there? are you going to be turning into the democratic convention? caller: i will tune in. we have a $16 trillion debt. we've got to get romney in

there. he will cut spending. i have six grandchildren i love. the future of the country depends on electing mitt romney. he is going to be the greatest president in history. i am so proud of him, i cannot sleep at night. this great man is going to save our country from bankruptcy. everybody needs to get fired up about the great mitt romney. host: mitt romney in cincinnati tried to fire up the crowd. he just left the room. he arrived in cincinnati, this is the first trip he took on his campaign plane. it is painted with his slogan "believe in america." numbers are on your screen for democrats, republicans, and independents. on the independents' line, charlie from florida. caller: charlie the plumber from

odessa, fla. i am waiting my options. i see i have one option only. it is obama. mitt romney i think is the one that will pull us out of this deficit. obama had a chance when the deficit was at $10 trillion. he said he was going to cut in half. it should be $5 trillion. what is it not? $16 trillion. . do people know what that is? i do not think people realize this. we're heading down the path of socialism by greece, italy, spain. host: what have you heard from mitt romney that makes you think he will change that? caller: he wants to make it easier for small businessmen to hire a, do business, make money

so we can pay taxes and keep our economy going. someone told me i need to make more money to pay more taxes to support big government. the entitlement programs. i would love to make more money. but in this atmosphere, obama has not been friendly to small businessmen. i do not think he is the one to lead our country. we gave him a chance. i wish you would have succeeded. i wish we had only $5 trillion debt. if we get obama again, what will we have? a $21 trillion deficit? we need to put a halt to this. host: on the democrats' line, we're going to gwen in georgia. caller: mitt romney sounds good.

a lot of my morals and values a line with the republican party. however, i cannot trust what they say. recently with the candidates they have chosen, they sound good. when they get in office, the country does not seem to be moving forward. how can i just mitt romney when he will not even release his own tax returns? yet he wants us to put our country in the can. it is like we're starting off with a cloud over him. that is the problem i have with a lot of the republicans. i personally have a problem when people praise previous president ronald reagan. he was a great man, but i remember people suffering under reaganomics. i remember a lot of government she is being handed out because people were suffering during that time. -- i remember a lot of

government cheese being handed out because people were suffering during that time. when it comes to policies, i see a lot of people suffering. that is the issue i have. host: you are going to take some more calls. i want to let you know the president will be visiting ireland today. it is his second visit to the state. although this visit will look more like a summer music festival, it is an outdoor crowd, country and rock bands will be performing. we will have live coverage of his appearance. he will be in iowa at 2:20 eastern time. next to florida on the independents' line. what do you think of what you have seen from mitt romney or the president lately? caller: i watched cincinnati,

the conference this morning. i watched all three days of the convention. i am undecided. i do think a change would be good. but the truth is the romney campaign has taken a back seat. romney said he wanted obama to succeed, but from even before he was inaugurated, they have been obstructionists all the way. john boehner said there is no such thing as a compromise with the president. he is a guy who is introducing him in cincinnati today. all of the leaders of the republican party in government have set their own agenda from day one to block every initiative obama head. -- had.

i would personally be looking for a change. how can i trust these people in anything they say? host: we will leave it there. a lot of people still on the line. i am sorry we have not gone to your phone calls. you can also determine such across to us on twitter. use the hashtag 2012. ahead of the convention this next week, we're going to show some of the past democratic national convention speeches. that will start at 7:00 eastern. we will hear from the 1960's, john kennedy speaking. lyndon johnson, bill clinton, then 1948 with harry truman. we will take your calls later this afternoon. president obama speaking at 2:20 eastern time. for now, members of congress and advisers to mitt romney's

campaign discuss challenges facing government this fall and the styles of president obama and mitt romney. this is from florida, the same week as the republican convention in tampa. >> while they are getting settled, i am the editorial director of "national journal." i wanted to give you a quick order of business. we're here to talk about iran the agenda and how mitt romney and the republican party will govern if they win in november. we have three panels. we will talk with john kyl. then we will talk to senior adviser to mitt romney. then major and i will talk to others about how these ideas may

be received in congress if romney is elected. with no further ado, let me turn it over to major and david for the opening bell. >> senator kyl, it is great to have you with us. i will not go through your bio. we will go to questions about the way the election may turn out and what it might meet -- mean from the agenda. if mitt romney wins the presidency, there is a narrow republican majority in the senate republicans retain control of the house. what is set in motion? how significant with the reconciliation process the -- be? >> i think your question sets up the answer. that condition with setup a real change in american politics and government. this campaign does represent a

clear choice between two different visions of the role of government in our society. the obama administration has demonstrated a penchant for increasing the role of government in the regulatory regime, the tax regime, and legislation like obamacare. the romney vision is the more traditional view of what has created success in our country. that is to give an opportunity for people to develop their own skills and success, to have that success based on their achievement and the risk that they are willing to take. it is the most opportunistic and wealthy society in the history of the world. it has lifted untold numbers of people out of poverty and helped people to live their life dream. as a republican, i am stating that in a way i think may seem

biased. this country was not built primarily with government. the country was built by the people of the country. as a result, our vision is we should return to a more traditional view of a balance between government and the private sector. first of all, the tax policy would begin to reflect that the you and would take less taxes from businesses, especially to job creators. it would affect regulations and labor unions that obama has been supporting. on the specific question of obamacare and reconciliation, this is the process by which the usual senate rule of a 60-vote requirement to make big changes

is changed to a mere majority requirement on matters that are the subject of a past budget. hopefully you will see the republicans pass a budget, which the democratic senate has not done for three years. the budget could consent -- containe reconciliation instructions to report back legislation which would significantly modified if cannot repeal obamacare. that could pass with a majority in the senate and in the house with a majority. if president romney is there to sign the legislation, he would do that. those are some of the ways you would see a new administration reflecting the mandate of the people to get rid of obamacare, constrained regulation, taxation, let the american people grow the economy again. >> i want to be more practical

with you. president elect romney. you are in the position of being a wise man leaving town. this is not going to be your normal transition because of the fiscal clift coming after the election and decisions that have to be made on taxes and spending. how do you think congress handles that with president- elect romney? how does he handle it when he first comes to office? >> great question. the point david is making is we're heading for a fiscal cliff, primarily due to sequestration legislation that slashes $109 billion out of the federal budget, half of which comes from the fence, and the tax increase on january 1 when the rates revert to a decade ago. it is a huge tax increase. the congressional budget office says this will drive us into

significant recession. we will lose 2 million jobs more. it will stop our recovery dead in its tracks. his question presumes there is an opportunity to deal with that before the next administration takes office. that would be during the lame- duck session. starting after the election and before january 3, congress would have an opportunity to deal with these problems and half a dozen other big problems. >> governor romney said i want them to wait for me to come in. >> what he is talking about is the fundamental tax reform. he promises if he is elected -- we're talking about a reform of corporate and individual tax code. that will not be done in a lame- duck session. i agree. >> they will not agree to a grand bargain before the new president. >> it does not have to be a grand bargain.

we could relatively easily deal with the sequester issue. that can be done in a lame-duck session. we could also set the stage for the right kind of tax reform by continuing the current tax code for your. that should give congress time to deal with it with leadership from the president. perhaps the octomom in the lame- duck session is to solve the sequestration problem as well as the debt ceiling and other things -- perhaps in a lame-duck session, they can solve the sequestration problem as well as the debt ceiling and other things. the big thing causing business to hold back from hiring and making investments is the uncertainty. if the tax code is extended another year, you have more certainty while congress is dealing with fundamental tax reform. that would be my guess as to the most optimum situation.

>> there is an assumption the election will resolve this great tension, this big trees. what if it does not? what if president obama is reelected. the senate remains divided. the house majority of republicans is smaller. everyone feels more constrained and less full of themselves than before the election. does it resolve anything? does it set another course? do you have the same partisan division and divide that has characterized the last four years in washington? >> it makes it more difficult to reach the big decisions. in another sense, it does present an opportunity. i will give you an illustration. you are familiar with the tip o'neill-ronald reagan deal on

social security. we know we have to deal with entitlements spending programs. those have got to be reformed before they go bankrupt. . .

[captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] >> so the question is, will he lead? my guess is that the so the

american people need a better understanding of the need or changes. >> do you think that in this first 100 days president romney wants to put on his agenda reforming medicare, given the experience president bush had in the first 100 days of his presidency? >> my guess, it is not part of his first 100-day agenda, but he has talked about the reality that the program will not be there for your children or grandchildren unless we do things to assure its continued viability. as a result, i would think at some point in this administration, when the political sioux important can be put together, he will -- when

the political sport can be put together, he will do that. one thing is, he was not afraid to tackle this problem even though he knew he was a demagogue by democrats. >> well he -- >> at first. and then i think he will convince the american people that we cannot defer action on these problems any longer. >> medicare is part of a bigger whole. so in the hypothetical discussion, president romney comes in. he has the fiscal situation to deal with. regardless, there is sch an overhang he has to deal with here. republicans like to say, this is about presidential leadership that can change what's going on in congress. congress has taken this discussion and will not change as dramatically and the country

remains polarized. i want you to describe what a president romney presidency offers. >> that's a great question. first of all, i think paul ryan is part of the team and has great relationships with both the house and senate. it affords romney the ability to work more closely with congress than president obama has done. obama has worked well with congress, and republicans and democrats will tell you that. as part of a joint select committee, we looked at a corporate tax rate. it makes us very uncompetitive. the president himself has talked about that. individual tax rate reform, which is the only way you will generate net new revenue there

were both democrats and republicans that said these issues needed to be tackled. i think that that opportunity is important. >> before you go, one of your skills in the senate is -- any vote 51 republican will know they have tremendous leverage.

>> there's an irony. first of all, having the president there is a strong support for the whip. if the president says, i sure would if you can stick together on this, that sends to bring people together. secondly, ironically, sometimes it is easier when you know you only have 51, because you know you have to stick in this together. then where you have 55 where there is room for people to peal off. then this is the thought of, wrl -- well, i get to vote no on this one. the job of whip gives you fantastic opportunities to see this. sometimes it is better when you have little leeway to roll the wheel bare owe. >> senator, thank you very much for your time.

[applause] >> a senior advisor to the romney campaign. former council to president bush. former chairman of the republican national committee. with him, joining us, glen hubbard, columbia business school. advisor to george w. bush under the first president bush, and david and i mr. engage them in conversation. ed, maybe i can start with you. in david's questioning of senator kyl kind of raised the question, noted this will be an unusual question. there are important decisions that have to be made in the strans transition. there was some confusion mitt romney would like if he was

elected president. what would you like to see congress and the president do? what would you like them to resolve? what would you like to see left for them. >> i would like to talk first of all about the fiscal cliff and that sort of thing. i know my limitations. what we're focused on is the opportunity to put a focus on job creation. to circle back a little from the last panel, in terms of those first 100 days, what mitt romney will focus on, is how do we get this economy going again? one of the first things we can do is lift the mandate. we have other areas we would like to see reform. we have tudgets in terms of cracking down on china's -- the way they engage in the world markets and currency. there are things we can do

relative to trade in jn. for a lame duck session is where we have an opportunity to make a mark with i new congress. >> there will be major decisions made, including worn to extend the bush tax cuts. what would you like to see congress do? what would you like them to see lead for an incoming administration. >> the first thing is congress should extend the current tax code. as senator romney was saying, so there was time for the romney plan to take place. the most important thing is removing the policy of uncertainty. they will tell you, over-regulation of tax policy is weighing on them. clearing that up would be a huge help.

>> there seems to be this idea that suddenly there is a new president and that things suddenly change in washington. there are aspects the republicans would like to sneak in there. hard to remove entitlements. so how much does that uncertainty prevail as you grind through some potential changes? what are the other avenues of a more systemtive effect on the economy that a new vice president romney would like to have on those? >> the economy is important. it probably cost the economy about two million jobs. the question is right, how do we resolve it? in my mind, it is about setting about a roadmap. in tax reform, every big tax change has been led by the president. this president has not led on

taxes. romney said he would. i think there is much queck do first with social security and then with -- i think there is much we can do first with social security and then with medicare. that is under the administration's control. >> let's talk about the agenda you want to bring to the new congress. one of the most ambitious goals he played out is on the budget side. limiting spending to 20% of g.d.p. and limiting domestic spending to 16% of g.d.p. by your calculation that would require $500 billion in reductions by 2016, especially in light of reversing what president obama was doing. can you give us an idea of where you would squeeze to get down to that level of spending? >> it sounds extreme the way you ask it. let's remember that 20% was the

number for decades and decades and decades prior to the financial crisis. this is not some rocket science thing to do. i think it is the usual suspects. discretionary spending has to be re -- reviewed. those things are very, very important. we can get back to the 20%, and it is not pain-free. but if we don't, we're going to have to have very large tax increases for all americans. that's really the choice. >> i'm not sure -- i was an english major so i'm not sure if it is a numerator or a denominator, but we should also focus on both sides of the economy. what president romney would do would be to unleash economic growth, create 12 million new jobs. we don't have to live in an economy that's stuck around 1.2%

economic growth rate. so a big part of that equation is the growth in the g.d.p. >> one thing that was striking about the ryan budget that the house passed twice and that governor romney advocates, it seeks changes and structural changes in the program. you alluded to converting medicaid into a bloc -- block grand. is that kind of the bottom line for governor romney and a future republican congress in 2013? in other words, not just savings in the program, tightening eligibility, raising he will -- eligible, but structurally changing these entitlements? do you think that is necessary for it to be successful? >> i think it is. the budget is not necessarily a numbers exercise, it is about how to deliver government services more effectively to the american people. there are -- are ways to

transform what we do with so-called entitlement programs and government romney is committed to them. >> some have said about this discussion that it is more philosophical, and there is a precedent for different attempts. how do you expect president romney in the first part of his term to both think about what government can do it's sesm to unleash economic growth and at the same time selling what government should do less of to enable economic growth? >> first of all, one of the things i want to talk about is not just what governments can do less of and more of, but can government do things better and more efficiently and more effectively? i think one of the things about the current debate that is different is one, the context of the obama care bill which has changed the nature of the medicare debate significantly in the political arena. the second thing is there is a much broader understanding that

the current system is going broke. that if you are 50 years old -- or it was going to go broke in 2015 and if you are 45 years old, it is not going to be there for you. people realize that. they understand the need for the reform. what republicans talk about is how do we save this? i think making the point that has been made repeatedly, rightly, if you are at or near retirement, we are not talking about anything that is going to affect pu, 55 or -- affect you at 55 or above. the option would be to stay with medicaid. but if we don't do that, it is going to go broke. from our perspective, this is not about more or less budget deficit reduction, this is about, are we going to have this program? is it going to be there for my

daughter or not? i think you can do both. i think you can reform these programs. >> i agree with that. i think also government romney will focus in the beginning on getting the economy going again. the first year government obama did not have economic recovery at the top of his list. that's not going to happen for romney. it is the key that the long-term management is important and short term. president obama seems to believe the long run is a series of short-term actions. >> this president, like a president romney, would have something in common. what president romney would have to deal with is the overhang of what the lame duck session would do or would not do.

>> we are supporting economic growth and having a clear path for the recovery with a discussion of where he wants to go, and that's important, because right now most americans fear higher taxes in the future, and it would not be unusual to feel that. >> what actions would fit under that umbrella in the immediate action. senator kyl was suggesting that the immediate action might wait until later and be part of a second-stage agenda. what would qualify and what would you expect would be those immediate actions? what would be delayed? >> i was speaking with governor romney. day one would include wavers under obama care, more clarity in financial regulation, corporate tax reform right away

along with the resolution of a fiscal clip. all of those things are supportive of economic growth. >> and improving the keystone exxon pipeline. we're talking about thousands of people that could be working right now on a pipeline. by the way, after we complete that job, help us move closer to energy independence. that's the second part of romney's agenda. >> let's address the tax issue which you have been in the senator of the debate about. when governor romney announced a tax plan back in february, you said the goal would be it would be distributionly neutral and revenue neutral. as you heard said, it doesn't add up. the lost revenue is greater than the total cost of eliminating all these expenditures that benefit people at the top unless you are willing to raise taxes on capital gains, which he does

not want to do. can both of your goals be accomplished? >> it is simply false. there are two quick things. i know people do not want to here the details of economists fighting, but there are two big problems. one they have no big growth for tax reform. >> in a second stimulation with growth, they still reach the same conclusion. >> with much more modest growth than we have assumed. so if you don't assume tax reform matters, tax reform doesn't matter. it works that way. second, they misept governor romney, because what he said is, look, everything is on the table. they cherry-pick some things. is it hard to do? yes. can it be done? absolutely. simpson by the way raised two full prg rates of g.d.p. with the same structure as governor romney's.

>> but you are saying, that is a net revenue increase, as you point out. >> correct. that's my point. it is almost easier for romney to have a revenue-neutral plan to accomplish what he wants to do. >> are they wrong wrong? is there not enough cost in terms of tax expenditures that would offset the revenue loss, no matter -- >> do the math yourself. if you have trouble -- >> it is a political point. if you are working inside the -- working with the president, what is it you think president romney can accomplish that will undoubtedly be pretty resistant majority in the senate?

>> president bush -- i think in all those instances, you can find areas where you can get things done. i do think it begins with agreeing to degree on things, but not attacking people in terms of their, you know, their vote of -- i think one of the things that president obama and senator kyl said is in the house and senate as well, there is say very poisoned well. look, i would say president clinton was tough when it came to republicans in congress. president bush was tough when it came to democrats in congress, and vice-versa, but it never crossed the line of saying, well, you don't really care about -- as president obama has said, children with autism. those kinds of attacks really make it difficult to say, well maybe we can find some compromise.

you really want dirty water and dirty air? that makes it difficult to come back and find a bill we can agree on. if you watch governor romney, we are very clear about the differences in terms of policies and what we believe the impacts and affects of those policies are. but equally clear, trying not to question people's motives and saying there is a sinister reason for it. >> only in boston do they love that dirty water. [laughter] >> let me ask you quickly each. is there one area you think where governor romney might surprise us if he is president? a policy that he might pursue that we would not expect today on immigration, energy, or the budget? is there any place you think he might be surprising in office that confounds expectations? >> i actually don't. i think one of the things i have found -- and i'm a little newer to the campaign than some -- is

that governor romney is running on things he believes in. when he gets done, he is someone who by his nature wants to fix things. he sees a broke government and he wants to fix it. he wants to turn things around. i think his selection of paul ryan reenforces he wants this election to be about big solutions, big proposals, a big debate. so i guess given the, you know, if i might, i've been thinking about here, the introduction about elevating the debate, and i thought that's why glenn is here, and i'm here to provide what we're going to elevate it from. [laughter] >> it may be a surprise that after four years that he's going to go in and do what he said he was going to do. >> i think there was something that is not a surprise, and i think people have picked up on it, is his concern for the unemployed in the country. if you look at the revolution in training programs, this is the most innovative policy solution

or democrat about long-term unemployment that i've seen. >> all right. thank you very much. we have one more panel for you. [applause] >> along with two members of the house. and one house alum. let us get organized here for one second. >> now more discussion on how former governor mitt romney might govern as senate if elected this fall and how he might work with democrats in congress. we're joined by members of congress, including utah representative jason -- and california representative mary bono mack.

>> after hearing of the nature of the -- from the first two panels, we will have another panel of participants and observers in the washington scrum. on my far left, only in a physical sense, jason chaffetz. he sits on the house oversight and government reform committees. mayory bono mack is representative from the california inland many pirate. and we have a former rep republican -- a former representative. obviously this is an unusual transition. if governor romney is elected

president, he will not be inheriting a blank page. there are big decisions that have fob made during the transition around the whole series of issues known as the fiscal cliff. what do you think -- what do you think should happen in the fiscal cliff, what would you like to see happen, if governor romney is elected president? >> well, i do have optimism because i think he is the right person at the right time. he can start the keystone pipeline immediately. wavers should happen day one. and then engage in tax reform. tax reform will take longer to play itself out, but governor romney and then president romney will have that phase in the beginning of his presidency to help change the country. i think when he selected paul ryan it was a signal that we're not just picking someone because of the geographical concerns, we actually want someone to do something and lead, and to get

the house republicans, particularly the conservative side of the equation, the second most conservative person in the house, paul ryan. going -- his going to the house i think will be very per swacive. >> if he is elected, his ability to let alow any of the bush tax cuts to continue, or would we come into a situation where the entire tax cut situations would expire? >> i think it is important that we take this opportunity as a country to realize, something has to change. rahm emanuel said, don't ever let a crisis go to waste. it is an opportunity to look at economic policies. plus for the congress and administration to do a real top-down look at what we're doing wrong. our businesses are over-regulated, they are

over-taxed, they are over- litigated. this is one of the things i'm so excited about with mitt romney. as a business man he knows how to go through these things and the where we are going wrong. i am more of a centrist. this is the only time i've ever been to the right of jason. the american people believe there is a weak spot in american energy policies. i believe romney can find a good policy for energy and also protect the environment. i'm an optimist in that regard. >> let me ask you an irritating but practical question. let's say mitt romney does win -- let's say for the sake of argument mitt romney wins and you still have president obama presiding over the lame duck session. and john boehner and eric cantor go to the congress and say, we

have a choice. we can tell president obama we will produce no votes and let the bush tax cuts expire for a short period of time and give mitt romney a fresh start, or we can compromise now, which gives the new romney administration time, but days compromise for a defeated president. and john boehner and cantor go to the president and seek your council. what would be your advice under that responsible scenario? >> for me, i don't want to see a tax increase. i think america is saying we don't want a tax increase. we do need tax reform. i think we should offer -- it is a terrible way to gone goff -- to govern, but pass that lame duck and give a new president or re-elected president until march to sort this out. but if that does not happen, i think you can do it across the board.

the president would have literally days to deal with this wns signed in. >> i don't think president obama will sign president bush tax cuts. >> i think the president will have a very difficult time to reject that if the house and the senate can move that far. >> i wonder if you are basing your assumptions on the election timing. i think we need to look at it from where we are now and where we will be post november. i don't think they are one and the same. i think for all of us to assume where we are today is where we will be post december. >> you are assuming that the congress will be acting in the same exact political environment in november and december as exists today. and what congresswoman bono has said correctly is the environment is going to change the election. democrats are assuming a --

assuming a romney president and republican congress, it will be much more difficult for the democrats to be as obstructionist as your question implies if the country has just voted for a republican government. >> and even if the election ultimately produces something close to a 50-50 divide in the senate, republicans holding the house with a narrow majority, it is possible, or likely, that the winner of this president will have a lower share of the popular vote than he did in 2008. if the country is divided, does that logic still hold? >> the country wants a new president to succeed. president obama only got 53% of the vote, but he came to office with a 55% approval rate. the country will want a new president to succeed. if the new president acts appropriately, he can maintain that. my view is, one of the big mistakes this president made was to out-source his first big policy decision to house speaker

pelosi. this is not because i think she is any better or worse, but by giving it to the house of representatives you assured a partisan product, a partisan outcome. i think it set the tone for the whole four years. a new president romney will have an opportunity to shape a different environment. you know, we were discussing with glenn hubbard and ed gillespie what is immediate and what may be longer term. this is a very aggressive agenda. when you look at the ryan budget, food stamps, medicaid, tax reform with the top rate at 20%. limiting federal aid, repealing carbon emissions, repealing obama's health care plan. >> you are so excited. >> what falls under the cone of

what glenn hubb. rds -- of what glenn hubbard was talking about and what might have to be put off until a later time? >> i think it seems a little drier, but i think the regulatory piece of this is very, very important. i think tax reports, expense reports, but i don't think we realize the extent of the avalanche that the current administration will put a damn per on. on the first day of the obama presidency rahm emanuel issued a directive freezing all regulations from the bush administration and the pipeline. that is something you can do day one. you can stop the regulatory avalanche on day one and then start deregular lating things that have inhibited energy production and every other

sector of our economy. >> you say day one, and i think of day one in genesis, by the way. [laughter] >> what do you think might need to be done immediately and things that need to be put off? >> i sit on the energy commerce committee, so i agree. i can see how energy regulation can be hurtful to job creation. there is no question we need to deregulate. do we keep the american people safe? of course we want to do that. but how do we battle this in a way that grows the economy? that can be done. the administration over the last four years has tried to artifically tried to move the market through mechanisms that have not been on track with true market conditions. i think energy is the prime example of that. i come from a very expensive energy state, california. very expensive state all together. many would say the legislature in california doesn't do a whole lot of things right.

but i'm fearing that washington has been going more or less sacramento would be a huge mistake. 435 members of the house of representatives and the members of the senate, we can do it all and we should do it all. >> i think the markets the american people need confidence. i think changes need to be made that will grow the economy. i think romney represents a pro-growth economy. if you don't get that confidence out of the chute moving forward, it will be a difficult four years because the market will hesitate. if romney can show he has that confidence, the markets will come back. that naturally adds revenue to the treasury, which makes financial abilities much more profound. and i think it will allow the romney-ryan budget and plan to actually move its way through the congress. it is not close to being easy. no one is supposed to get everything they want. we recognize we have to do this.

you asked earlier what one of the surprises will be. i think the country will be pleased at how truly mitt romney works with the democrats. he dealt with this in massachusetts. four years as governor, 85% of the legislature plus were democrats. they actually brought the unemployment rate down from 5.6% to 4.7%. he can do this. i think that's where president obama failed. they hoped that that would happen, he projected that he was going to do that. it never materialized. and i think this will be one of mitt romney's great strengths. >> let me ask you about tax reform. do you envision tax reform being the bush tax cuts or something else? or do you start with something else that does not include or assume the bush tax cuts? question two, there were bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003: you may not like the work pay tax cut, but he has cut taxes. there are many economists that

say that accumulation of tax cuts has not presented the kind of growth we saw in the 1980's or post-kennedy in the 1960's. and they are wondering, do tax cuts have the stimulus effect they once did? >> i think romney is right. we have to lower the base. democrats argue they want to raise the rate because they want more government. what mitt romney is saying, broaden the base, get rid of special interest loopholes out there, but not have a tax increase. there are literally thousands of them in the tax code. i watched, because i voted against it. there are tax loopholes for rum manufacturers, race tracks in this country. i mean, they are chalk full of them. i think we can actually do this. i think part of the reason romney selected ryan is because of his expertise on this issue. if you ask paul ryan what he wants to do more than anything

else in the world, it is tax reform. >> in terms of economic growth, what we as republicans believe, and what i think history, both in this country and elsewhere has shown, is that all taxes are not equal. lower marginal rate will spur economic growth. that's what we really believe in. that can be achieved only really now through tax reform. a lot of things, including the bush administration, tax cuts. sort of a short-term command side. but lower marginal rates and across most of the rest of the world have resulted in higher economic growth. the bush administration faced a number of serious difficulties. remember this little thing called 9/11? about $1 trillion out of the economy? i don't think all the bush tax cuts were right, but i think they were trying to help us recover after the bubble burst and after the impact of 9/11. >> that is the question. you look at the last three

decades. reagan cut taxes, cut marginal rates. we got 16 or 17 million jobs. bill clinton raised marginal rates and we got 23 million jobs, 22 million jobs after raising marginal rates. bush again cut marginal rates and i believe the total net job growth was one million. when you look at that, why do you conclude that marginal tax rates are the key lever in changing the trajectory of job growth when we have had job growth with marginal prate cuts and no job growth with the second round? >> i think the threth theoretical decision of the clinton years largely benefited from the reagan tax cut. when reagan came in office, it was 70%. when he left office, it was 28%. that was a dramatic radical change and it propelled growth. >> when you put -- >> when you put most of your chips -- if you are thinking of why the

economy would grow faster under a romney presidency than it has under president obama, what would be your bet? would your bet be lower tax rates lead to lower growth? >> they obviously interconnect with a lot of things. if barack obama took office now, there are 143,000 federal workers on the federal payroll. we have more than 450,000 federal workers turning in excess of $100,000 per year. i think the american people look at that and say, does the a.p.a. work better now that they have hundreds of thousands of people? is transportation in this country suddenly better? no. can you cut billions of dollars out of discretionary spending and have a more efficient government? yes. you couple that with the idea that the market -- particularly the bond markets look at it and say, ok, this government is going to be responsible. we believe in romney and ryan that they will actually balance the budget -- at some point. not overnight. and you qup -- couple that with

a responsible government and do energy exploration and energy development within this country, you start to have this combination where you get confidence, growth, revenue. i think that is the combination that the country is looking for. >> speaking of energy, i -- you mentioned energy a number of times. i want to talk about the romney plan and one aspect of it that is striking. that is giving leasing controls for possible fuel crel development on the federal lands within their borders. is that something you think republicans in the house will be comfortable? republicans in the senate? or the representative from california, would that give you concern? >> i don't have the answer necessarily for that, but the way i would look at it and think about it, in my district we do not produce fossil fuels, but we are rich in other things. i think in california, and we

have been friends a long, long time, transmission. recite these new green -- you know -- all sorts of views. we can't wield the energy. if you invest in people, you give them local opportunity and input, you would think you would get a little bit better results. i want to go back to one thing. the corporate tax rate. i think it is ridiculous that we are the second highest tax rate in the world. when you boil this down to my perspective as a member of congress, with all the years i have been doing this, there is one powerful moment that stands out to me. that was before april 15 whether a senior citizen really cried because he was so frustrated with how the tax code was. he was not crying about how he paid his taxes, but he was afraid he would make a mistake and the government would come out of him. that is a powerful moment when you see one of your constituents that afraid of the government

and what could happen to him. it boils down to what does it mean for our constituents? they want a much fairer tax code. i think we need to do that first and foremost. >> it needs to be revenue neutral. would you agree with that? >> the hall mark of what president romney has said is he is not going to earn kudos by taking care of the wealthiest, he wants to take care of the middle class. he's there for anybody that has an adjusted growth income of $200,000 or less. he wants to bring down to zero the taxing on capital gain interests and dividends. that should be exciting to the middle class. that's how you will get the economy moving forward. he has something to prove in, and that's what he wants to do. >> how would you respond to the tax policy analysis that says most of that would go to the wealthiest and if you take away some of the things necessary for tax reform -- and if you look at

their modeling, they tried assume very optimistic tax reform, even then you have to raise taxes or take away deductions beneficial to the middle class? >> i would say hogwash. go talk to paul ryan. that's why you pick paul ryan, and you say, no, no, no. you are missing the fundamental aspects of it. i have seen some of the ideas from this policy center, and i disagree with it. >> let me ask you about the other side of the equation. in terms of the ryan blueprint. it does envision, as we were talking about before, not only reduction ns spending but structural changes, medicare in particular. the history of the last 30 years has been pretty bleak when one party has tried to do this alone. 1981 with reagan and social security, 1985 with republicans in medicare. even in a different way, 2009 with obama expanding entitlement

that did not have bipartisan support. in each case there were political repercussions for the party that tried to change enfight lments on a unilateral basis. my question is, even if republicans had unified control of the house and the senate narrowly and mitt romney wins, would they be wlg to turn the current structure into a support system on a party-line vote, perhaps a 50-50 reconciliation vote without the support of the democrats? >> it is true, the reforms on a partisan level have not been politically wise in the past. we do have a different situation now. as ed and glenn both said, the country cannot not do this. we can get into a discussion about the long-term budget problems. it is absolutely impossible to solve the long-term budget

problems without solving medicare. >> i'm not asking whether we should. i'm asking do you think a republican congress would be willing to do this without democratic support? one more condition. if republicans achieve unifying control, it will almost certainly be in part if they do extremely well among white seniors, where they run at 60% support. can you see them doing this? whether or not they will -- whether or not they should, will they? >> why they would not do it when they have a president who wants it is beyond me. >> would you need democratic bias? >> i put 18 informs months putting together a reform package on social security. i said paul, what's the key to

moving forward? as soon as you get a democrat, we will all jump on board. and look what paul ryan did with medicare. the idea that he got out with senators -- i think there are reasonable people that know what to do on a party line. he is as solid a democrat as there is. >> to get ron white's support, paul ryan had to significantly alter the original construct of that, allowing anyone to opt into stay in medicare as it is and not opt for the new plan. it dramatically reduces the budget transformations. >> and i think one of the problems with it is the so-called obama care. they did not bring any republicans along, and it was their failing and their shortcoming. >> i would like to say, the american people noo know we have to do something. i think that's first.

for the first time they are recognizing -- you are seeing the backlash in that with things like the high-speed rail. californians are rejecting that. they know we have to put our fiscal house in order. >> real quick before we hit midnight here. i would like each of you to think about, is there one area that you think of president romney and a republican congress might move in a direction that today we don't expect? immigration, energy, climate? a budget deal? is there anything you think might confound our expectations today? >> i go back to what i said earlier. i think mitt romney will be masterful in his pabblet to work with the democrats and be a reasonable person and interact with them. he did it as depoffer -- governor of massachusetts he did it with success, and i think people will be pleasantly surprised by that. >> i think he will help small businesses in america. i think he will surprise people in that area.

>> glenn hubbard started to talk about, i think people will be surprised to find that president romney actually talks about and cares about poverty in this country. i think that governor romney, given his background cares about that issue. it will surprise people pleasantly to see some conversation about that. >> maybe in four years we will regather and see what the report card looks like. thank you for joining us. let's take some questions and we'll have some final remarks. [applause] >> many thanks to our editorial director of national journal and the national journal and to congressman jason chaffetz, mary bono mack. it has been a terrific afternoon. i also want to thank livestream at the atlantic.com.

i have been delighted to work with b of a. we will have another session next week in charlotte. lined up for that program are nancy pelosi, gene sperling, and governor maloy. thank you so much for being here, and thanks to bank of america. [applause] >> more on presidential politics tomorrow on "washington journal" as we look ahead to the democratic convention in charlotte, north carolina. our next guest is rob

christensen. he is a political advisor from the "news & observer." following a look at north carolina as a battleground state this year. in 2008 president obama was the first democrat to win the state since 1976. we will be looking at davidson college professor susan roberts. and our next discussion will be on gay and lesbian issues. ryan butler will discuss a prohibition on gayle gay marriage in the north carolina state constitution. delegate for the state, ryan butler. "washington journal" at 7:00 a.m. on c-span. and "news makers" tomorrow on c-span with antonio villaraigosa. he'll talk about how the democratic convention will differ from the republicans' and areas where he thinks

republicans fall short like immigration and the future of medicare. >> at the ryan plan on medicare, the voucher plan, do you think that is a point of vullnerability that democrats will try to exploit in charlotte? >> well, independent fact checkers, not just democrats, they have said that until point of fact, mr. ryan actually proposes that states -- to take $715 billion out of medicare to point for the taxes that they want to cut taxes. this is from a guy that said his number one issue is cutting the deficit. i think we will talk about the deficit cutters that they are, they like to say that the president did adopt the simpson

act. what they don't say is he didn't vote for it. they like to say that -- you know, a lot of things that they can't support. and a lot of the independent fact checkers, i mean, if you look at most of the newspapers, they look at these things, what we have seen is an ability to say what they want to say despite the fact that -- we're going to set the record straight. we're going to set the record straight on medicare. we'll set the record straight on the ryan-romney budget. we'll set the record straight on their plan to cut $5 trillion in taxes, and essentially cut every program except for defense and the like. so we have a story to tell. >> you can see the entire interview with los angeles mayor

antonio villaraigosa at any time online at c-span.org. >> next, the president's weekly address. and then a discussion on hurricane isaac. and then u.s. tax policy. >> hi everybody. i went to fort bliss in texas where i met with some of our extord men and women in uniform to mark anotherier in combat in iraq. it was a chance to thank our troops. fort bliss is home to soldiers that took part in every part of the iraq war from the initial assault to the fight to the partnership with the iraqi people that helped give them a chance to help forge their own defendant nate any. while the war itself remains a source of controversy here at home, one thing will never be in

doubt, the members of our armed forces are patriots in every sense of the word. they met every mission and performed every task that was asked of them with precision and skill. now, with no americans fighting in iraq, it is my privilege on behalf of a grateful nation to once again congratulate these soldiers on a job well done. this anniversary is a chance to appreciate how far we have come. it is also a reminder there is still difficult work ahead of us in afghanistan. some of the soldiers i met in fort bliss had just come home from the battlefield. others were getting ready to go out. we began the transition to an afghan lead. next week, the final groups that set the surge on the tam ban will return home. as long as we have a single american in harm's way, we will do everything in our power to

help keep them safe and help them succeed. that means giving them a clear mission and the equipment they need on the frontline. it also means taking care of our veterans and their families. no one in the country should have to fight for a job when they come home or a roof over their head. we turned the page on a decade of war. it is time to do building back home. my grandfather came home from war and helped form the backbone of a great nation, to help the country come back stronger than before. today's military has the discipline and skills to do that exact same thing, and it is our job to do that. it is time to build a nation that lives up to the ideals that so many americans are -- have lived up to. we need to rebuild our roads, runways, and ports. we need to lay broadband lines

across this country and put our veterans back to work as cops and firefighters in communities that need them. we need to come together and make america a place where hard work is rewarded and anyone willing to put in the effort to make it a good fight. it is the welcome home they have earned. thanks. have a great weekend. >> from new orleans is congressman -- i am congressman steve scalise. please keep those prayers coming. as you do, i also you to remember those who lost their lives in hurricane katrina seven years ago. they are in our hearts. i have seen some of the damage from hurricane isaac firsthand and i have spoken to many on the ground. hundreds of thousands remain without power and the threat of

flooding continues throughout southeast louisiana. we're not out of the woods just yet, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. during this disaster, we have seen neighbors helping each other and people coming together to ensure the safety of their loved ones. that's what we into louisiana do. that's what americans do. in tough times, we strive farther. we remember what's most important to us, and we fight to protect it. one of the greatest things about our country is that we're a resilient and hardworking people. on this labor day weekend, we remember these values and the things that have made our country the greatest in the world. our country was built by hardworking men and women willing to take risks and make sacrifices in the pursuit of happiness. seeking opportunity, and working toward better lives for our families. the hopefulness and optimism that comes with pursuing the american dream, that's what sets us apart and makes our nation great. one way we keep the american

dream alive, of course, is by building a strong economy that afosters private sector jobs and opportunities. that's why the house of representatives has passed more than 30 jobs bills. this will power small businesses and remove barriers to economic growth. this includes an energy strategy that safely increases our domestic energy production while creating thousands of american jobs and reducing our dependence on middle east oil, changing $4 at the bump -- pump. we need the sencht and stability -- we need the certainty and stability that comes from relying on our own energy resources. our proposal is to stop the tax hike on small businesses scheduled to take effect just months from now on new year's day. according to an independent report from the accounting firm ernst & young, this tax cut

would destroy more than 700,000 jobs. that's a blow our small businesses cannot afford to take. so the critical test now is whether the democratic-run senate will act to do the same. we hope they will, and in short order. because for millions of americans, this labor day finds them still looking for work and still asking, where are the jobs? . it doesn't have to be this way, and we can turn it around, because in america, it is times of adversity that bring out the best of us. it is a lesson we saw on display again this week in southeast louisiana, and it is one we expect in the coming days as we give thanks to the men and women that built this country and we dedicate ourselves to ad drsing the challenges that america's workers face. thanks for listening. god bless america. .

>> let me welcome our audience from c-span that may be watching or participating online in any form. for those of you who wish to twitter, we're happy to have you participate. let me first thank our sponsors and underwriters for helping to make this occasion take place. the alliance to save energy, the credit union national association, pfizer, property- casualty insurers association of america, and united technologies. let me introduce all three of them. congressman pete sessions is responsible for the house

congressional campaign committee. the house continues to be dominated by republicans, dominated. [laughter] even more dominated. is there going to be too much domination? [laughter] reid wilson, editor and chief of the must read. the bill is a longtime friend. he has been covering the white house since 1981. he knows a lot about the white house. we will see how much he knows about congress. gentlemen. >> welcome. i want to start with the basics. democrats need 25 seats to take back the house. do you think they will get them?

>> it is going to be a long night. we're going to start in the northeast. we will move to the central part of the country. we will win some more seats. these are pickups. we're going to move to the west. the california crowd is going to deliver what will be a continuation of john boehner solidifying republican control across this country. we're going to win with our freshman -- fresh mint -- freshmen. they will make the case that what we're doing in washington helps the country go on a better track of job creation, investing in american jobs, and we're going to repeal obamacare. this week the congressional

budget office plainly said that if congress does not act, we could lose up to 1.2 million american jobs. if we do with the democrats want to do which is stick it to the employers and top wage earners, we will lose 800,000 jobs. republicans are for losing zero jobs in this country as a result of the tax code. we want to keep taxes where they are today. we will argue the case that we're for job creation, small- business, and making sure america will be competitive. that as republicans are going to argue. that is where we're going to win. >> what are the new members going to be like? will they be like the freshman class the last time around? will you have trouble keeping them in line? >> as you understand, last time

was different from this time. this is a presidential race with implications across the country. we will have members that when in selected areas as pickups. that is all we're talking about, the pick up seats. we will win at least one in arkansas, oklahoma, a couple in georgia. we will have new seats that have been transferred to texas. we will pick up a couple there. these will be people around the country. since when are massachusetts and rhode island good republican pickup seats? this cycle, they are. you will have joe coors in colorado. john in indiana. you have a good number of people who are individuals

across the country. they will be very unique. this will not be a wave election. it will be any election of individuals who are better candidates with better ideas and specific seats with mitt romney on the ballot. " how do you expect them to line up with your other new members? >> quite well. we have a lot in common. we recognize we must repeal obamacare -- the affordable health care act will cost this country 800,000 more jobs if we do nothing. that is the centerpiece of where we are. secondly, not raising taxes when our economy is as bad as it is. thirdly, an agenda that john boehner would preside over that gives us the opportunity to make sure the bills we put on the floor are red, the members of a

chance to amend them, and that congress work well with others to get an agenda done for jobs. that is what their catalyst is all about. >> let's talk about their defense. you have to scale back and make sure you protect the people already there. what do you do to make sure the incumbents keep their jobs? >> there is a big argument in our conference about whether we will do that, just protect the 89 new members. guy harrison and myself city have the wrong to have skies of -- the wrong two guys for the job. we have to be aggressive. we put together a plan of individual districts we felt like we could win. that is what we're doing. the deputy chairman and i have divided the country and spend

our time to make sure our incumbents that we call patriots are taken care of. we think they are going to win. we did that last year. this year is about offense and winning new seats. i believe we will win five to seven new seats across this country because we're playing offense and not trying to protect what we have. net new republicans. >> at the beginning of the cycle, everyone expected democrats to make advances. what has changed? >> a good number of people believe democrats are going to hold the majority. if you look at the demographics of the country, you will see republicans like ricky, a young man who is 25 of indian background, with his parents in

california. he is a new type of young done. we have joe coors in colorado who is near 70 years old. he believes the free enterprise system and american dream are deluding themselves. this is how we play offense. they're called young guns because they have ideas to make our country stronger and better. >> congressman paul ryan will be accepting the vice-presidential nomination. democrats will try to make his budget be the center of their attacke on romney and your incumbents. you learned a lot of lessons, right? >> we did paul ryan is as good a spokesman as we have in our party. there is nothing more powerful than having the architect, and

understanding the hard work he has put into explaining that. he is the favorite son of our republican conference. he is well understood. we believe what he has talked about can sustain this country. you and i both understand the democrats think they want to get in this fight. the we are the ones that want it more. we are the ones the believe we can have an adult conversation with the american people and electorate who needs to see the country -- direction the country is headed. paul ryan has a plan we believe is sustainable and which we can stand behind. it is simple. the president and all democrats to vote on the health care bill took $700 billion out of medicare senior health care that benefits seniors today.

we had the unfortunate circumstance of having to deal with the law. we did a budget. senate democrats did not. they cannot make the tough choices. paul ryan said leaders lead. we have to make decisions to sustain the system. i am pleased with what we have done. we have tested this in nevada. that is a great canada. as the american people learn we will sustain medicare, bring the money back again, but make sure that not one senior 55 and over is impacted with any new system, the current retirees get the benefits, we will take care of that. then we will begin freedom opportunity for those 54 and below by offering the same kind of system that federal employees have today in their health care. i think that is a solid win for

seniors so they know we can sustain what we're doing into the future. >> democrats will make this all about paul ryan budget. the democrats will say not only did they not take the $750 billion out, in his budget would cut the central services at many levels. you have an argument going on. are your members going to be able to make the argument and sell it? >> the president needs to understand this election is going to be about a person that can tell the truth about what they actually did do and what the plan is instead of aiming at a republican plan that paul ryan understands and will explain to them. the president took the $700 billion to pay for the affordable health care act. he took the money out of senior care and moved it over.

the president did not pay for physicians to be reimbursed for senior care and medicare. republicans are having to deal with the law the way it is. paul ryan makes sure not one benefit -- very little changes. nothing we have suggested about 55 and above. anyone currently on medicare and the people who will enter into it. for the president to not recognize he has moved back the date toward bankruptcy would not be honest. the congressional budget office, medicare, reports say it plainly. in the larger scheme of things, it is the president's economic outlook where we are troubled. without job creation, we cannot sustain medicare, social security at all.

we have to have a joint balance, a system that works well, and job creation. that is what republican budgets do. they build back jobs in the country. >> part of the argument over money for medicare, you are going to get a lot of push back on the ryan budget. in order to cut taxes and not raise revenue, he is going to have to take money out of existing programs. this is something they will throw at you in every district. everyone in your congressional opponents will be on the same sheet of music. >> the fax of the case are we have job creation. we stop the 800,000 jobs that would be lost with obamacare. we stopped the billions in spending engaged in nobamacare. we move back to the system we

have today where a patient and doctor can make those decisions. you have to get a job creation with it. the president will have to be able to look at somebody else who says, here is where we're headed. that is the congressional budget office who says we will keep losing jobs until we have job creation or the ability to reinvest in this country. democrats like to say it is all about the rich. it is about the people who pay 95% of the taxes. they also contribute to a huge number of jobs in this country. we need job growth in this country. that is what paul ryan does. >> >> i am going to ask a quick one and and give everybody else a chance. you travel the country. you know the candidate. tell me about race you are watching that we may not think is competitive. what are we missing? >> i do not know that you are

missing anything. there are a number of races that are interesting. i think jason plumber in southern illinois is a good race to watch. i think jason is going to win a seat that has never had a republican. southern illinois, right outside of st. louis, i think that is a great place to stay well a traditional democrat area elect a young man who is 31 but a republican talking about growing our economy and growing the middle class of this country. that is an area that has never had a republican. question for congressman sessions? yes, sir. we will bring you the microphone. >> i am with the "houston chronicle." i want to ask about the 23rd

district race in texas and your reaction to the court ruling yesterday on the republican redistricting saying it violated or discriminated against minorities. >> thank you very much. i was with canseco in texas last week as part of the swing i am continuing in the western part of the united states. el paso is a city are used to live in a number of years ago and have watched the demise of confidence in the city in their elected officials. congressman reyes lost his seat. there is a lot of uncertainty in el paso about the kind of leadership that will bring jobs back to el paso and many communities like it. ko canseco is running in a

seat that will be very competitive as perhaps the number one tried for the democrats to pick up against a republican. he is going to win. he has a clear reading he is a clear republican who speaks spanish and understands what jobs and freedom are all about. i believe quico will win the race because of his proficiency. our party has the will to support quico in texas. we will give the resources necessary. the court case decided last night, we could probably argue this. i have not looked at the exact thing yet. i believe it says the way the

districts were drawn need to be reconfigured. i disagree with the federal court. i disagree with the way they ruled. we're going to work well with the legislature. we will make sure they are fair seats. the last cycle, we picked up three hispanic seats with members of congress who ran. i believe texas and hispanics will be interested in job growth and creation, not a continuation of the decline of the middle class and the ability of hispanics to build themselves from generation to generation. i think that argument is important, specifically with hispanics. it is their chance to get ahead and live the american dream. that will come through job creation and, through a government welfare program.

>> anybody else for congressman sessions? yes, with a clear -- way back there. >> i am with the news service in boston. i was hoping we to get your assessment of the race in massachusetts and your thoughts on how an openly gay, socially liberal republican might fit in with the caucus if he got to washington. >> richard came to visit me last year. he was trying to get a reading from me about what i would think about his chances to have us not just work with him, but actually engage with them on taking a seat in massachusetts. our party is interested in people back home electing

members of congress. i have a litmus test. that is to get elected and become an honest member of congress where you can contribute to better the agenda we are after. richard has served as the minority leader in the senate in massachusetts for a number of years. he recognizes scott brown, who used to be one of his members, 156% in the seat he is running in. the issue of jobs, job creation, and the kind of person -- richard is running against the current sitting member of congress who had ethical issues and problems, votes for every single tax increase, and have seen jobs the minister across the northeast. and has seen jobs diminish

across the northeast. i think richard understood early on that i would be a strategic partner with him. we mirrored with him in our organization, and i think you will see full engagement with richard. he and i connecticut and a if he and i communicate on a -- key and i communicate on a regular basis, and i would be proud to have him as a member of our congress. how would he do with challenging issues that are important to him? >> richard is interested in talking about economic job growth, and the ability to create a business -- a future for small business. i do not believe he is on any crusade. he wants to become a professional member of congress and conduct himself just as he did in massachusetts. he will be welcome in our party, and i will be his lead advocate that correct time for one more kid >> -- >> i have

time for one more for congressman -- advocate. >> time for one more from congressman sessions. >> my name is johnny, from the university of akron in akron, ohio, and i wanted your take on the 16th district, betty sutton. what is your take on that? that is a big election. >> jim, as we recall was a car dealer who saw this of administration specifically do things within the world of car dealers -- the government made decisions in the free enterprise system about who would keep car dealerships, who would lose car dealerships, and recognize that when they lost they walked away with virtually nothing. the government picked the winners and losers in the car industry. he was a person among others who took that as a personal attack against the free

enterprise system. jim renacci is a man who came to congress, the an incumbent who -- beat an incumbent who was a well-known and likable man, but voted for tax increases and the agenda? pelosi placed before the fall of the house of representatives -- agenda nancy pelosi placed before the house of representatives. he is running against exactly the same thing, both for more -- votes for every tax increases, and puts ohio and the country at risk. he is an outstanding member of congress, and jim renacci will win. we will be there with him. as a patriot, we believe he is positioned for victory, but you and i also recognize it is a member against member race, as i had in 2004 in texas, there are a lot of other people that

will come and jump in that race, and that is why the nrc isc fully prepared -- nrcc fully prepared with our support for jim renacci, and even the democrats recognize this race will be over quickly. >> congressman sessions, thank you for your time. [applause] >> thank you. >> we will bring guy harrison, and the executive director of the senatorial committee from the national republic convention, to talk more about these races and the national landscape. after that, we will bring up analysts, jennifer duffy and david watson to talk about the house and senate contest.

grab a cup of coffee, if you would like, and we will have come up here in just a moment. -- up -- we will have them up. just a moment. -- up here in just a moment. >> executive directors of the house and senate congressional committees talk about races in florida and massachusetts. they discussed campaign financing and the economy. this is about half an hour. >> thank you for being here. we want to take a moment to introduce guy harrison, executive director of the republican -- national republican committee, and he says -- senator sessions things to pick up 5-to-76. -- 5 to 7 seats.

is that what you expect? >> last cycle, he thought that we would repeal nafta policy, and everyone thought that was not possible, and that turned out -- nancy pelosi, and everyone thought that was not possible, and that turned out to be true. last february, he said we would be bringing folding chairs into the house to handle the expanded majority republicans would have. he is pretty good at predicting these races. we feel good about where the plan is. obviously, we are at that point in the election where the real ads happen, so we will see where things end up. >> on the other hand, 53 democrats in the senate, will you take that the majority this time? >> i think we have a great shot. we hit a bump in the road in missouri, that as an offset by connecticut moving in the right direction, ohio moving in the right direction, mich. moving in the right direction, so we feel we have a good shot of winning. oflet's talk about some

those races. it interests me that in the last few months, a few weeks even, it feels that some of these races might be getting closer. we have seen polls with republicans leading in connecticut, ohio, florida. if these seats are on the table, we are talking about a 54, 55-seat republican majority, right? >> we have a great shot of winning a majority. clearly, in the next month, almost universally, polls have moved in our favor. a couple have gone the wrong way, but in senator brown's race, he is clearly ahead in massachusetts now. ohio, it took awhile for that to move, but that is starting to polarize and the potential that is a ballot -- presidential ballot. places like michigan are pretty

close, but when we began, we were down by one point or two, and now we are ahead. i think there is slight movement in our favor, and the campaign will engage with all of the ads. we are in a good spot. >> when you look to the seats you're trying to pick up, how does the national race help or hurt you? >> i think it is state by state in some of these places. in connecticut, or massachusetts, these guys are running independent races. i think is very helpful to us and the campaigns are taking advantage of the atmosphere. >> gu,y similar question, with millions of ads flying around the cleveland or toledo media market, how closely are most house contest tied to what

happens on a national level? >> in the swing states, fairly well-tied. i think we will be match up pretty closely with the presidential. the presidential race is really not happening on the television set. places like that,i think we have a unique opportunity to have a mid term type of race in the fact that the congressional race will be the key race that they see. that is a great opportunity for -- for us. nancy pelosi says her drive back to the speaker's table was centered in california, and that is interesting because i think we will have seats in california. we look forward to california and new york.

>> let's talk about some of the states that are not swing states. john boehner has been visiting delegations. mitt romney gave you money that will go to states where he is not already advertising. it touched the region we touched on richard tisei in massachusetts. feels there is a larger trend of democratic candidates who are not the best. >> last night, democrats nominated a woman, in arizona, a new seat in a phoenix suburb, a state--at home -- stay-at- home mom -- she says there leeches on society. she says stay at home girlfriends are leeches on

society. in nevada, you have a guy -- that in on pensions -- double dipping on pensions. he was doing that. he was one of the highest paid public employees as an assistant fire chief, making over $400,000. that is something the taxpayers want to know about. across the street, you have steven cole parking him the top -- stephen who parked in a handicapped spot what he was a state senator. was accused of pay for plate scandals and other things. we appreciate every leg up the democrats have given us. >> what about the governor's pick-up? >> we have great opportunities on wisconsin and ohio, but we are

running against seasoned people who are running good campaigns. in most of these places come once we get the candidates -- the democrats are basically running personality contest. -- contest. i think that benefits us. that is starting to help in some of these states that we just mentioned. i think we're moving in the right direction. >> let's talk about north dakota specifically. this is a fascinating race. it does gone red forever, it seems at the moment there is a neck-and-neck race. is that how you see it? >> it is a competitive race. she is a good candidate for them as made this again about personality.

at the end of the day, this is a woman who supported president obama, who campaigned for obama-care. she awarded a large new york firm who is now funding her campaign with a sweetheart settlement. i think this race will be close to the end. we are ahead, i believe. i think we will stay ahead, but it will be a real race and there is no question about it. >> let's talk about virginia. i never understand why anybody polls the virginia senate race. it is always tied. who wins this race and how? what happens on election day to make george allen or tim kaine when the race? >> -- win the race? >> one year ago, i would've said the ann romney needs to win and that tim kaine has a -- that mitt romney needs to win, and that tim kaine has to get swing voters.

i do not think that is the case anymore. in a less service, tim kaine is much higher on samples. that is not something i would have predicted one year. boy george allen and a couple of places is pulling ahead of -- george allen this is pulling ahead in a couple of places of mitt romney, but i feel he has done a good job and as a shot at winning. >> here in florida, you've got bill nelson, connie mac. it seems like that racist closing. >> -- that race is closing fast. >> it is hard to look back and

the bill nelson was serving in the carter administration. it is hard to look back at anything he as done that is noteworthy. he cannot walk around and say this is a major piece of legislation. >> he went into space. >> i think voters realize that. they want people that are going to deliver, and i just run so they can join the club, which seems to be what senator nelson is up to. in virginia, ohio, and florida, there is heavy presidential spending bill nelson is on the air with an aggressive ad talking about what he did 20 years ago, which is interesting giving the issues his son as head. -- has had. i think these races are not going to get away from us.

they will be close. we will have a real shot. >> rob jesmer brought up outside spending and the group said of dominated the election cycle. with one group able to write a check larger than a campaign budget, how do you would buy as candidates to prepare for that? >> you -- advise candidates to prepare for that? >> you always have to be prepared. it seems like that happens more in the primaries than the general election. outside spending has been happening for a long time. i find it interesting that reporters have just noted outside spending once republicans were good at it. we did not have a problem in 2008, 2006, when democrats were running -- writing checks. it has suddenly become a surge of society when republicans have gotten good at it this purge on society when

republicans have gotten good -- splurge on society when republicans have gotten good at it. we understand that. we feel very good about helping out these races, but we value the partnerships that are outside as well. >> do you have any races where the outside spending is hurting you? >> we are pretty good about making sure we are on offense right now. when we are talking about racism -- races in massachusetts and rhode island, the debt -- races in massachusetts and rhode island, the democrats and not doing very well. we will have some tough races. when you pick up 63 seats, there will be defense of targets, but our guys will be prepared. >> let's talk about what we are likely to see in advertising. anyone turns on a television, you have nothing but negative advertisements.

in 2010, i feel like every advertisement was a negative advertisement. over the next few months do you see an advantage in your candidate offering a vision or should they go beat up the other guy? >> listen, all commercials are negative in side of politics and outside of politics. you make decisions based on the differences, not the similarities. the most famous-advertisement of all time is "where is the beef?" you have to define both sides and give the voters a choice. >> the white house refers to negative advertising as contrast advertising.

rob jesmer, will can is offered for-looking -- candidates offer for-looking advertisements, or will they be contrast advertisements? >> i think certainly some people will run positive advertisements. i think guy is right to point out the differences. >> is anybody short of money that you really need to help? >> obviously, we have a long- term incumbent in jim matheson. -- she is running against matheson. we feel great about her kennedy -- candidacy see in utah. she will have to step -- candidacy in utah. she will have to stay within 30 points of the romney/ryan ticket. he might hit 80 in this district.

>> 80? >> we had him at 74. >> talk about the candidates that spoke yesterday. why choose them? >> we worked with the rnc ann romney team -- and the romney team, but i think it was a good mix of fresh and candidates that we have on the stage. the doctor from michigan did very well, then we had a good group of candidates. we highlighted north carolina because we will take up a lot of seats in north carolina. the democrats have already given us two of the four, and when you are running in cease their -- in seats overwhelming,

i think we will get 55, 56%, maybe even 50%. >> let's talk more about the -- -- paul ryan conversation we had with pete sessions. 57%. >> let's talk about the paul ryan conversation we had with congressman sessions. we have heard the ideological argument. what do the polls tell you about both sides of the medicare argument? >> we have been doing medicare for one year and have the house races. there is not one additional medicare and run because paul ryan is the vp. democrats said their only strategy was medicare, medicare, medicare. we have probably had 45 polls in the last month and a half, and in our house races we always ask the question ryan's medicare plan against obama-care taking $700 billion out of medicare, and the fact is we win

that argument in every single poll. that is why we have embraced this fight so much. there is only one party that is cutting medicare, and that is the democrats, and we will talk about how they cut medicare and put it in the health-care policy that nobody wants. we look forward to this debate. we thinking people will weeks democrats will start -- stopped talking about this because they will have lost it, but if they continue on this debate, we will win more than a i think the predict today. >> >> talk about more specific races. the two best republican opportunities at the beginning of the cycle was -- or misery -- missouri and montana. misery seems to have fallen off the table with -- missouri has seemed to fallen off the table with todd akin. let's talk about montana. >> i think he is taking on some water with his service in

washington. he voted for obama-care. he voted for the stimulus and bailouts. those are starting to penetrate, which is why he went on the air today saying he was opposed. this is where we have to win between 45% and 43% of independence. we need a majority. of independents to win. i like where he is right now. hester was running a good campaign a few months ago, and is still running a good campaign, but the competitor is a solid plan, and no-space we're -- most days we are up a couple of points. >> nevada -- i think we are going to pick up a couple of

points. >> nv? >> i think people missed judge -- misjudged to the ethics committee issued. people thought the bottom would fall out. that is not something we thought would happen. we think it is damaging to her with the swing voters tend -- voters. we are ahead convincingly. shelly burkley is upside down by a wide margin. i think he is very underrated as a politician and as a guy representing nevada. he relates well. shelly berkeley, 100 yards away from the strip, i think she has a hard time relating to people in nevada. we've had a four-to-six point lead for four or five months, and i think that is where the races today. with presidential spending, the race will be close, but i feel like senator heller is going to

win. >> i will ask one more question, give me a race that we are not talking about now that we are going to be an election date could be the big surprise? >> i do not think our surprises are in massachusetts and rhode island. i will go with joe cores in colorado. it is looking very good in the presidential. it is a swing district in a swing state that is turning overwhelmingly to the right. it is yet another race for the democrats around the defensive, -- where the democrats are defensive, where they would like to be on the offense. >> rob jesmer, what senate race are we not talking about enough? >> if you add up all of the polls. >> you have fewer polls to deal

with with -- than guy. i have think yesterday's poll was significant, litigating the wwe service of linda mcmahon. that was a week of negative ads. this is challenging, but linda mcmahon is running really good campaign. we're pleasantly surprised where we are there. i think, frankly, the main senate race we have a long ways to go. and every reporter in town is missing the boat. we will let that shakeout. >> why? whether we missing? -- what are we missing? >> it is a three-way race, run against two democrats. we do not need romney's belive

shares to win the state of maine. clearly, we need to catch a little fire, and that starts happening, if if that starts happening, the race starts to go, and that is challenging for the democrats. they are embracing king. your a strategist on their side, and san diego stars going up, and our guy goes up, they are in a challenging place. unlike my counterpart, we do not oversell things, but i think the race is just beginning and we will see where we are in a couple of months. >> let's open it up for questions. yes, ma'am. >> hi, i'm with the alliance to save energy. obviously the economy and jobs are the biggest issue for voters, but gas prices are rising and pretty precipitously. assuming play, i'm

that continues to go up, what impact energy issues and policies will have on voters? >> i think energy policy is the under-sold story of how we won back the house last cycle. along the ohio river valley, this president has a problem with people that produce energy and communities that produce energy, and those communities are voting against him. we have greater opportunities to keep those seats and pick up seats in energy-producing areas. the president has an odd-of- the-above energy strategy which just means he does not like energy produced in the ground, but the unfortunate part is a lot of americans make their job in that industry, and they're sick of being demonized. we feel good about the races.

you look at the western slope with scott tipton. i would encourage obama's next-- visit. be to the western slope. i do not think he would get a good entrance there. >> this is a real head- scratcher. i do not understand. we have energy. we have an abundance of resources to wire we not taking advantage? it is great for the longest -- resources. why are we not taking advantage? it creates jobs? people see the pipeline and the epa that as out-of-control. i think this issue resonates with people. i just wonder what in the hell is going on in d.c. i think it is favorable for us. it is hard to find a state where the president's policies are more popular than the republicans' policies. >> who else can i call here?

anybody? yes, sir. >> good morning. i was wondering what your take is on candidates running on sequestration? it is a d.c. term, we know what it means, but some republican candidates are really running on that. >> in virginia, i think that is one of the reasons why george allen has had good movement over the last six-to-eight weeks. i think he takes the most advantage of it and has done the best job. i think it is an important issue. i think a lot of people are effected, and the frustration in general, the umbrella tone of the campaign, there is no reason why we could not be talking about this now. waiting until after the election is cynical.

people see through it. you have the administration pressuring defense contractors not to follow the law, which will lead to employees losing their jobs. it is incredible. whether it is sequestration or passing a crime budget, or a comment -- a serious budget or entitlement reform, where is the president put the plan? there is no dispute that entitlement reform is going out of money. i do not get -- you might disagree with congressman ryan 's plan, but it is a serious plan. i think there is a level of seriousness with most of our candidates, and a lack of seriousness in confronting

serious problems on the democrat side. >> at do you want to add anything? >> i think he handled that. [laughter] >> time for one more. i have -- anyone else? >> bill, "stiglitz post dispatch -- saint louis post- dispatch." >> can todd akin be successful -- >> thank you for your time. [laughter] >> can't todd akin be successful demonizing the republican party bosses and will lead bleed into other races? >> i have obviously thought about this [laughter] first, i think congressman todd akin is a good and decent man who served this country while and we should not throw away --

well, and we should not throw away his career based on what he said. that does not mean he is a suitable candidate for office right now. there is not one poll by suggests he could win, either that he has produced, or that has been the third-party, independent poll. i think that is why you see so many people in missouri, members of the delegation, the state speaker of the house say this is not your time, todd. he says he is going to run. we take him at his word. i think they're just is not a path to victory for him right now. this is one of the few times -- with regards to how other people

deal with it, you know, this is one of the few times looking back where there is basically unanimity among elected officials and in a group of people who normally, frankly, give leadership a hard time, kind of the right-wing, talk- show conservative circles, which are helpful to our party but a lot of time to not agree with everything that is done. we were going to be -- to be clear mechanical. -- we were going to beat claire mckaskill. he is now down 11 points. we will not lose by 20 points, but last year he had a favorable. we will see. congressman todd akin has done a lot of great things for the cause, the pro-family, social issues cause, and there would be nothing greater than beating claire macskill to continue that cause.

hopefully he will do the right thing at the end of the day. >> rob jesmer, guy harrison, thank you so much for being here. [applause] >> more on house and senate races this cycle with jennifer duffy and david wasserman. >> two of the smartest people in politics, the only to the people i go to if i am worried i will say something stupid. they usually do think it is stupid. jennifer is very happy that rob jesmer has left the building because now can -- she can say what she thinks about the senate races. >> robb is not not telling the truth, a double negative. here is what it comes down to. i have no disrespect for rob and

what they have done. they started this cycle needing four seats. that path was clear. it has gotten harder. the easiest went through the -- missouri. it is off the table. they have got to find another. it is going to be steeper. it is still there. it is harder. i gave them a 50/50 shot before todd akin's unfortunate comments. now i think it is down to a 45% chance of picking up the seats they need. they do have a great shot in some places that surprise me a little bit. we have been talking about races in montana and virginia for 18 months.

they have been within the margin of error for 18 months. this is what is interesting. the poll yesterday showed mcman ahead. she is ahead. she has murphy on the defensive. they are going to have to spend money. if missouri is off the table, you will see republicans try and put more effort into places like florida, which is a close race, maybe michigan. they will not do this in a vacuum. indiana has gotten more interesting. i note the democrats won in arizona. i am dubious about arizona because democrats have